The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, October 4, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Game 1 home favorites in the divisional round are on a 33-18 SU (+8.25 units, ROI: 16.2%) surge, including 3-1 last year.
Systems Match (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, TORONTO, PHILADELPHIA, SEATTLE 

* Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 135-133 (-51.48 units, ROI: -19.2%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (+101 at PHI) 

Trend: Over the total is 13-7-1 (+5.30 units) in the last 21 games of the CHC-MIL series at Milwaukee
– The ROI on this trend is 26.5%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-MIL (o/u at 7.5)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.4% (2-2, +0.00 units in the ’25 playoffs).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-144 vs CHC), TORONTO (-125 vs NYY), SEATTLE (-202 vs DET) 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units (2-0 for +2.00 units in the 2025 playoffs).
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-202 vs DET) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2% (2-5 for -2.92 units in the 2025 playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (+101 at PHI) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in ’25 and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units and an ROI of 5.2% (2-1 for +1.00 unit in the 2025 playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (+101 at PHI) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured two consecutive terrible playoff seasons in 2023 and 2024, with a combined record of 38-43 (46.9%) for -18.84 units and an ROI of -23.3%. These are typically high bet volume games, so bettors have lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, NY YANKEES, SEATTLE

The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.

Overall MLB Postseason Trends

Line angles

–   Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, they are just 78-77 SU (-31.19 units, ROI: -20.1%)
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-144 vs CHC), TORONTO (-125 vs NYY), PHILADELPHIA (-123 vs LAD)

Series wins status

–  Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 85-77 on run lines (+21.14 units, ROI: 13%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 vs CHC), TORONTO (-1.5 vs NYY), PHILADELPHIA (+1.5 vs LAD), SEATTLE (-1.5 vs DET)

Trends based upon regular-season records

–  In the last four playoff seasons, MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 47-44 SU (+14.24 units, ROI: 15.6%) and 58-33 on run lines (+15.08 units, ROI: 16.6%) in playoff games when not matched up against similar.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT

Totals angles

–   The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone 83-80-1, Overs have produced a return of +20.69 units, an ROI of 12.7%. Total odds have been heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): CHC-MIL (o/u at 7.5), NYY-TOR (o/u at 8.5), LAD-PHI (o/u at 7), DET-SEA (o/u at 7)

Divisional Round Angles

–  Home field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 56-37 SU (+5.91 units, ROI: 6.4%) and 51-42 on run lines (+16.8 units, ROI: 18.1%) since 2015.

–  Game 1 home favorites in the divisional round are on a 33-18 SU (+8.25 units, ROI: 16.2%) surge, including 3-1 last year.
Systems Match (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, TORONTO, PHILADELPHIA, SEATTLE

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1979-1863 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -245.96 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-125 vs NYY) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3999-3479 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -503.51 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-125 vs NYY)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 366-181 (66.9%) for +52.99 units and an ROI of 9.7%!
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-125 vs NYY)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 235-154 in their last 389 tries (+36.67 units, ROI: 9.4%).
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (+101 at PHI) 

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 135-133 (-51.48 units, ROI: -19.2%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (+101 at PHI)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: DETROIT +164 (+24 diff) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA -123 (+25 diff), MILWAUKEE -144 (+22)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: LAD-PHI OVER 7 (+1.3)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: NYY-TOR UNDER 8.5 (-0.8)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(931) NEW YORK-AL (96-69) at (932) TORONTO (94-68)
Trend: TOR is 13-17 (-11.03 units) in the last 30 games vs AL East foes with starter Kevin Gausman
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-125 vs NYY) 

(933) DETROIT (89-76) at (934) SEATTLE (90-72)
Trend: DET is 33-51 (-22.85 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (+1.5 at SEA)

Trend: Over the total is 56-40-2 (+12.00 units) in Tigers’ night games this season
Trend: Over the total is 59-44-5 (+10.60 units) in Mariners’ night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DET-SEA (o/u at 7) 

(935) LOS ANGELES-NL (95-69) at (936) PHILADELPHIA (96-66)
Trend: LAD is 9-2 (+7.05 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-1.5 at PHI)

Trend: PHI is just 17-23 (-10.70 units) in line range of -145 or worse with starter Cristopher Sanchez the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-123 vs LAD)

(937) CHICAGO-NL (94-71) at (938) MILWAUKEE (97-65)
Trend: MIL is 11-5 SU against CHC with starter Freddy Peralta since 2021
Trend: MIL is 29-18 (+11.42 units) vs LH starters this season
Trends Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-144 vs CHC)

Series #1: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
Trend: Over the total is 13-7-1 (+5.30 units) in the last 21 games of the CHC-MIL series at Milwaukee
– The ROI on this trend is 26.5%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-MIL (o/u at 7.5) 

Series #2: New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
Trend: Favorites are just 26-43 (37.7%, -34.23 units) in the last 69 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -49.6%
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-125 vs NYY)

Series #3: Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies
Trend: PHILADELPHIA is 8-2 (80%, +6.39 units) in L10 games hosting LAD
– The ROI on this trend is 63.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-123 vs LAD) 

Series #4: Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners
Trend: Underdogs are on 13-4 (76.5%, +13.48 units) surge in the SEA-DET series
– The ROI on this trend is 79.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+164 at SEA) 

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities 

NY YANKEES
Letdown after series vs. BOSTON: 19-17 (52.8%) -11.21 units, ROI: -31.1%     
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (+103 at TOR)

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