The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, October 2, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 49-62 SU (-34.41 units, ROI: -31%) and 35-76 on run lines (-33.08 units, ROI: -29.8%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS 

Trend: Under the total has gone 13-1 (+11.90 units) in the last 14 games where NYY was favored vs divisional foes
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-NYY (o/u at 7.5)

Trend: Under the total is 10-4-1 (+5.60 units) in the DET-CLE series this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-CLE (o/u at 7)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0% (2-1 for +1.13 units in the 2025 playoffs). The two-year regular season record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and a ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+134 at NYY)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-105 at CHC) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2% (2-3 for -0.87 units in the 2025 playoffs).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-105 at CHC), BOSTON (+134 at NYY)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): CLEVELAND, CHICAGO CUBS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured two consecutive terrible playoff seasons in 2023 and 2024, with a combined record of 38-43 (46.9%) for -18.84 units and an ROI of -23.3%. These are typically high bet volume games, so bettors have lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, CHICAGO CUBS, NY YANKEES

The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.

Line angles

–  Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, they are just 76-76 SU (-31.86 units, ROI: -21%)
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-127 vs DET), CHICAGO CUBS (-115 vs SD), NY YANKEES (-164 vs BOS)

Coming off wins/losses

–  Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 55-59 SU (-19.54 units, ROI: -17.1%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-115 vs SD)

–  Home teams coming off a win in a series game have been a better option, 73-62 SU (-5.21 units, ROI: -3.9%) in that same time span.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-127 vs DET), NY YANKEES (-164 vs BOS)

Series wins status

–  Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 83-76 on run lines (+19.67 units, ROI: 12.4%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-1.5 vs DET), CHICAGO CUBS (+1.5 vs SD), NY YANKEES (-1.5 vs BOS)

Stats from last game trends

–  Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 49-62 SU (-34.41 units, ROI: -31%) and 35-76 on run lines (-33.08 units, ROI: -29.8%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS

– Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series’ prior game are just 33-58 SU (-16.89 units, ROI: -18.6%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+105 at CLE), SAN DIEGO (-105 at CHC), BOSTON (+134 at NYY)

Trends based upon regular-season records

–  In the last four playoff seasons, MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 47-43 SU (+15.24 units, ROI: 16.9%) and 58-32 on run lines (+16.83 units, ROI: 18.7%) in playoff games when not matched up against similar.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON

Wild Card Round angles

2022 was the first season in which the wild card round expanded to a 3-game series 

–  Wild Card visitors priced at -110 to +160 underdogs are on a 22-18 SU (+11.32 units, ROI: 28.3%) and 27-13 (+5.68 units, ROI: 14.2%) on run lines surge since 2018.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, SAN DIEGO, BOSTON

–  Wildcard totals have gone 37-21-1 Under since 2015, with Under bettors gaining a return of +16.96 units, or a ROI of 29.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DET-CLE (o/u at 7), SD-CHC (o/u at 7.5), BOS-NYY (o/u at 7.5)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1971-2511 (44%) for -243.58 units and a ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (+105 at CLE) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3999-3478 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -502.18 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-127 vs DET)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: CHICAGO CUBS -115 (+32 diff)

Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(909) DETROIT (88-76) at (910) CLEVELAND (89-75)
Trend: DET is 32-51 (-23.85 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (+1.5 at CLE) 

(911) SAN DIEGO (91-73) at (912) CHICAGO-NL (93-71)
Trend: SD is 36-21 (+12.77 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-1.5 at CHC)

Trend: Under the total is 6-0 (+6.00 units) in the last six Chicago Cubs playoff home day games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-CHC (o/u at 7.5) 

(913) BOSTON (90-74) at (914) NEW YORK-AL (95-69)
Trend: Under the total has gone 13-1 (+11.90 units) in the last 14 games where NYY was favored vs divisional foes
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-NYY (o/u at 7.5)

Series #1: Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians
Trend: Under the total is 10-4-1 (+5.60 units) in the DET-CLE series this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-CLE (o/u at 7)

Trend: Cleveland is 13-6 SU in post-All-Star Break games versus Detroit in the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-127 vs DET) 

Series #3: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Trend: Boston has gone 10-5 SU versus NYY this season
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+134 at NYY)

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