Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB playoff games of Tuesday, September 30, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* In the last four playoff seasons, MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 46-40 SU (+17.11 units, ROI: 19.9%) and 56-30 on run lines (+17.2 units, ROI: 20%) in playoff games when not matched up against similar.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+111 at NYY), CINCINNATI (+167 at LAD)
* Wild-card totals have gone 32-19 Under since 2015, with Under bettors gaining a return of +14.05 units, or a ROI of 27.5%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DET-CLE (o/u at 6), SD-CHC (o/u at 7), BOS-NYY (o/u at 7), CIN-LAD (o/u at 7)
* Money line underdog teams with better SM bullpen ratings in the 2025 regular season finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+138 vs. DET), SAN DIEGO (+107 at CHC), BOSTON (+111 at NYY)
Trend: Under the total is 36-13 (+21.70 units) when San Diego faces left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-CHC (o/u at 7)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices typically aren’t that high. It should be a part of your handicapping routine.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+107 at CHC), BOSTON (+111 at NYY)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. This angle brought in +12.66 units over the final two weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+138 vs. DET), SAN DIEGO (+107 at CHC), LA DODGERS (-206 vs. CIN)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the winning percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-206 vs. CIN)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-206 vs. CIN)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+138 vs. DET), SAN DIEGO (+107 at CHC), BOSTON (+111 at NYY)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
Fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, so the 2025 results of 107-100 for +3.03 units were disappointing.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 3+ games – CHICAGO CUBS (-131 vs. SD), NY YANKEES (-136 vs. BOS)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in 2025 and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units (ROI 5.2%). It will be on the Bullpen System Reports next year once again.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+107 at CHC), LA DODGERS (-206 vs. CIN)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1,017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): DETROIT, CHICAGO CUBS, NY YANKEES
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured two consecutive terrible playoff seasons in 2023 and 2024, with a combined record of 38-43 (46.9%) for -18.84 units and an ROI of -23.3%. These are typically high bet volume games, so bettors have lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, SAN DIEGO, BOSTON, LA DODGERS
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular-season schedule, the stakes of every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history, and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line Angles
Road favorites of -140 or higher are on a 32-18 SU run since 2001 (+4.65 units, ROI: +9.3%)
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-168 at CLE)
Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating to 2018 have been very vulnerable; they are just 74-74 SU (-31.34 units, ROI: -21.2%)
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-131 vs. SD), NY YANKEES (-136 vs. BOS)
Series wins status
Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 80-75 on run lines (+16.85 units, ROI: 10.9%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+1.5 vs. DET), CHICAGO CUBS (+1.5 vs. SD), NY YANKEES (-1.5 vs. BOS), LA DODGERS (-1.5 vs. CIN)
Trends based on regular-season records
In the last 108 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 54-64 SU (-34.8 units, ROI: -29.5%) since 2019, including a hard-to-fathom 1-13 in 2023. However, they were 7-3 for +2.7 units in 2024.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-206 vs. CIN)
In the last four playoff seasons, MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 46-40 SU (+17.11 units, ROI: 19.9%) and 56-30 on run lines (+17.2 units, ROI: 20%) in playoff games when not matched up against similar.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+111 at NYY), CINCINNATI (+167 at LAD)
Totals angles
The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone on totals is split 80-73, Overs have produced a return of +25.5 units, an ROI of 16.7%. Total odds have been heavily shaded toward Unders in recent postseasons.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): DET-CLE (o/u at 6), SD-CHC (o/u at 7), BOS-NYY (o/u at 7), CIN-LAD (o/u at 7)
Wild-Card Round Angles
2022 was the first season in which the wild-card round expanded to a three-game series
Wild-card visitors priced at -110 to +160 underdogs are on a 20-16 SU (+11.19 units, ROI: 31.1%) and 25-11 (+7.2 units, ROI: 20%) on run lines surge since 2018.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+107 at CHC), BOSTON (+111 at NYY)
Wild-card totals have gone 32-19 Under since 2015, with Under bettors gaining a return of +14.05 units, or an ROI of 27.5%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DET-CLE (o/u at 6), SD-CHC (o/u at 7), BOS-NYY (o/u at 7), CIN-LAD (o/u at 7)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 1978-1861 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -244.96 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+138 vs. DET), SAN DIEGO (+107 at CHC)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1,970-2,509 (44%) for -242.58 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+167 at LAD)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3,997-3,477 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -503.18 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+138 vs. DET), LA DODGERS (-206 vs. CIN)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 233-154 in their last 387 tries (+34.67 units, ROI: 9%).
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-206 vs. CIN)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 133-132 (-52.11 units, ROI: -19.7%) in the next game since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-136 vs. BOS), LA DODGERS (-206 vs. CIN)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND +138 (+37 diff), CINCINNATI +167 (+34)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(941) DETROIT (87-75) at (942) CLEVELAND (88-74)
Trend: DET is 32-49 (-20.78 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (-1.5 at CLE)
Trend: Under the total is 42-29-5 (+10.10 units) when CLE is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-CLE (o/u at 6)
(943) SAN DIEGO (90-72) at (944) CHICAGO-NL (92-70)
Trend: Nick Pivetta is 13-4 (+9.27 units) in day games within -150 to +130 line range since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+107 at CHC)
Trend: Under the total is 36-13 (+21.70 units) when SD faces left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-CHC (o/u at 7)
(945) BOSTON (89-73) at (946) NEW YORK-AL (94-68)
Trend: Max Fried is 52-37 SU in last 6+ seasons starting against teams with a winning record
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-136 vs. BOS)
(947) CINCINNATI (83-79) at (948) LOS ANGELES-NL (93-69)
Trend: CIN is 4-15 (-9.42 units) as a large underdog +135 or worse by starter Hunter Greene in his career
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+167 at LAD)
Trend: LAD is just 63-87 (-23.94 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 vs. CIN)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #1: Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians
Trend: Cleveland is 12-5 SU in post-All-Star break games versus Detroit in the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+138 vs. DET)
Series #3: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Trend: Boston went 9-4 SU versus NYY this regular season
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+111 at NYY)
Series #4: Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers
Trend: LA Dodgers are 6-1 SU hosting Cincinnati in the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-206 vs. CIN)
