The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, October 1, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Since the wildcard playoffs turned into series in 2022, the team that has won Game 1 in the series has gone 10-2 SU (+10.11 units, ROI: 84.3%) and 8-4 (+3.9 units, ROI: 32.5%) on run lines in the follow-up Game 2.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, CHICAGO CUBS, BOSTON, LA DODGERS 

Trend: Under the total is 12-4-2 (+7.45 units) when SD is road underdogs with starter Dylan Cease since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-CHC (o/u at 6.5) 

* Teams that won a same-series MLB postseason game after having scored just 1 or 2 runs are on a 19-5 SU (+14.62 units, ROI: 60.9%) surge since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+108 at CLE) 

* Playoff home favorites of -240 or higher are on a run of 15-2 SU (+9.85 units, ROI: 57.9%)
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-281 vs CIN)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0% (1-1 for +0.13 units in the ’25 playoffs). The two-year regular season record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-102 at CHC)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEM

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.4% (1-2, -1.00 unit in the ’25 playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-186 vs BOS) 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units (1-0 for +1.00 unit in the 2025 playoffs).
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-281 vs CIN) 

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season (1-0 for +1.00 unit in the 2025 playoffs).
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-281 vs CIN) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2% (1-2 for -0.87 units in the 2025 playoffs).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-102 at CHC), BOSTON (+151 at NYY) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, so the 2025 results of 107-100 for +3.03 units were disappointing (1-1 for -0.37 units in the 2025 playoffs).
System Match (FADE): 3+ games – CHICAGO CUBS (-119 vs SD) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For ’24, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in 2025 and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units and an ROI of 5.2% (1-1 for +0.00 units in the 2025 playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-281 vs CIN)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): CHICAGO CUBS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been outstanding over the last 2-1/2 seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 263-79 (76.9%) for +31.6 units and an ROI of 9.2%. This is typically not the kind of wager I used to get behind, but the numbers don’t lie. It is a great rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured two consecutive terrible playoff seasons in 2023 and 2024, with a combined record of 38-43 (46.9%) for -18.84 units and an ROI of -23.3%. These are typically high bet volume games, so bettors have lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, CHICAGO CUBS, NY YANKEES, LA DODGERS

The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.

Line angles

– Home favorites of -240 or higher are on a run of 15-2 SU (+9.85 units, ROI: 57.9%)
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-281 vs CIN)

– Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, they are just 75-75 SU (-31.71 units, ROI: -21.1%)
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-132 vs DET), CHICAGO CUBS (-119 vs SD)

Coming off losses

–  Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 53-59 SU (-21.54 units, ROI: -19.2%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-132 vs DET), NY YANKEES (-186 vs BOS)

Series wins status

– For teams leading in a series, home field advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 69-47 SU (+14.99 units, ROI: 12.9%) and 61-55 on run lines (+15.7 units, ROI: 13.5%) since 2013.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, LA DODGERS

–  Home field has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 37-42 SU (-25.69 units, ROI: -32.5%) since 2013.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-132 vs DET), NY YANKEES (-186 vs BOS)

Stats from last game trends

– Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 47-62 SU (-36.41 units, ROI: -33.4%) and 34-75 on run lines (-33.75 units, ROI: -31%) since 2012.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, NY YANKEES

– Teams that won a same-series MLB postseason game after having scored just 1 or 2 runs are on a 19-5 SU (+14.62 units, ROI: 60.9%) surge since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+108 at CLE)

– MLB postseason teams coming off a same series game in which they scored 8 or more runs are on a 53-47 SU (+3.23 units, ROI: 3.23%) surge and 54-46 on run lines (+6.25 units, ROI: +6.25%) since 2014.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS

– Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series’ prior game are just 33-57 SU (-15.89 units, ROI: -17.7%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+223 at LAD)

Trends based upon regular-season records

– In the last 109 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 55-64 SU (-33.8 units, ROI: -31%) since 2019, including a hard to fathom 1-13 in 2023! However, they’ve gone 8-3 for +3.7 units since 2024.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-281 vs CIN)

– In the last four playoff seasons, MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 47-41 SU (+17.24 units, ROI: 19.6%) and 57-31 on run lines (+16.83 units, ROI: 19.1%) in playoff games when not matched up against similar.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, CINCINNATI

Totals angles

– The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the totals is split 81-76, Overs have produced a return of +23.02 units, an ROI of 14.7%. Total odds have been heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): DET-CLE (o/u at 6.5), SD-CHC (o/u at 6.5), BOS-NYY (o/u at 7.5), CIN-LAD (o/u at 8)

Wild Card Round angles

2022 was the first season in which the wild card round expanded to a 3-game series

– Wild Card visitors priced at -110 to +160 underdogs are on a 21-17 SU (+11.32 units, ROI: 29.8%) and 26-12 (+6.12 units, ROI: 16.1%) on run lines surge since 2018.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, SAN DIEGO, BOSTON

– Wildcard totals have gone 35-20 Under since 2015, with Under bettors gaining a return of +15.96 units, or an ROI of 29%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DET-CLE (o/u at 6.5), SD-CHC (o/u at 6.5), BOS-NYY (o/u at 7.5), CIN-LAD (o/u at 8)

– Since the wildcard playoffs turned into series in 2022, the team that has won Game 1 in the series has gone 10-2 SU (+10.11 units, ROI: 84.3%) and 8-4 (+3.9 units, ROI: 32.5%) on run lines in the follow-up Game 2.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, CHICAGO CUBS, BOSTON, LA DODGERS

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1978-1863 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -246.96 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-281 vs CIN) 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1970-2510 (44%) for -243.58 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+108 at CLE), SAN DIEGO (-102 at CHC) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3998-3478 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -503.18 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-281 vs CIN) 

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 591-483 (55%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +37.59 units, for an ROI of 3.5%.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-132 vs DET) 

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 365-181 (66.8%) for +51.99 units and an ROI of 9.5%!
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-281 vs CIN)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 234-154 in their last 388 tries (+35.67 units, ROI: 9.2%).
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-281 vs CIN) 

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 134-133 (-52.48 units, ROI: -19.7%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-281 vs CIN)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CINCINNATI +223 (+55 diff) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CHICAGO CUBS -119 (+25 diff) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: DET-CLE OVER 6.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CIN-LAD UNDER 8 (-0.6) 

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) DETROIT (88-75) at (902) CLEVELAND (88-75)
Trend: DET is 32-50 (-21.78 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (+1.5 at CLE)

Trend: DET is 16-7 (+8.74 units) in day game starts with Casey Mize since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+108 at CLE)

Trend: CLE has gone 28-12 (+15.18 units) in the -135 to +110 line range with starter Tanner Bibee since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-132 vs DET) 

(903) SAN DIEGO (90-73) at (904) CHICAGO-NL (93-70)
Trend: Under the total is 12-4-2 (+7.45 units) when SD is road underdogs with starter Dylan Cease since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-CHC (o/u at 6.5)

Trend: SD is 35-21 (+11.14 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+1.5 at CHC)

(905) BOSTON (90-73) at (906) NEW YORK-AL (94-69)
Trend: BOS is 20-18 (+4.65 units) against divisional teams with starter Brayan Bello
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): BOSTON (+151 at NYY)

Trend: Carlos Rodon has not been good in -185 to -210 favorite line range, going 5-11 (-16.19 units) in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-186 vs BOS) 

(907) CINCINNATI (83-80) at (908) LOS ANGELES-NL (94-69)
Trend: LAD is just 64-87 (-22.78 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 vs CIN)

Series #1: Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians
Trend: Cleveland is 12-6 SU in post-All-Star Break games versus Detroit in the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-132 vs DET) 

Series #3: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Trend: Boston has gone 10-4 SU versus NYY this season
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+151 at NYY) 

Series #4: Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers
Trend: LA Dodgers are 7-1 SU hosting Cincinnati in the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-281 vs CIN)

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