Sunday MLB and NBA Playoff Sharp Report (6-27)


Today the weekend wraps up with 15 MLB games and one marquee NBA playoff game. For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and check in with our good friend Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several Sunday matchups today…


1:10 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (36-38) at Miami Marlins (33-43)
After dropping the series opener 7-3, the Marlins have rebounded with a pair of wins over the Nats, outscoring Washington 14-4 along the way. In today's series finale, the Nats send out ace Max Scherzer (6-4, 2.19 ERA) and the Marlins counter with Sandy Alcantara (4-6, 2.93 ERA). This line opened with Washington listed as a -130 road favorite and Miami a %plussign% 115 home dog. Pros seem to think the value on Scherzer at this low chalk number is too good to pass up, as we've seen Washington move from -130 to -135. The Nats have value as a favorite with a low total (6.5). Historically, low totals have benefited favorites as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the better team. Scherzer is 18-7 (72%) in his career against Miami. Washington will also lean on its bats in this one. The Nats are hitting .248, which ranks 7th in MLB. The Marlins are hitting .232, which ranks 21st. Washington is 22-12 as a favorite this season. Miami is 17-29 as a dog. Scherzer pitched against the Fish once this year (May 2nd). He threw a complete game 5-hitter, allowing just one run while striking out 9 in a 3-1 Nats win. 

7:08 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (42-35) at Los Angeles Dodgers (46-31)
This is your Sunday Night Baseball grudge match. The Cubs stole the series opener 4-0 but the Dodgers have since ripped off a pair of wins, beating the Cubs 6-2 on Friday and 3-2 on Saturday. In tonight's series finale, the Cubs give the ball to Adbert Alzolay (4-6, 4.19 ERA) and the Dodgers start lefty veteran ace Clayton Kershaw (8-7, 3.43 ERA). This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a hefty -185 home favorite and Chicago a %plussign% 170 road dog. Sharps don't seem to be worried by the expensive price and have steamed the Dodgers up from -185 to -200. The Dodgers have value as a non-division home favorite (259-154, 63% this season). The Dodgers are 18-7 (72%) this season as home favorites -175 or more. We've also seen home favorites do well on Sunday Night Baseball, especially with line movement in their favor. The Dodgers are 46-28 as favorites this season. The Cubs are 15-20 as dogs. Los Angeles is 25-13 at home. Chicago is 16-22 on the road. 

8:30 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks
This is Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The series is tied 1-1. After dropping the opener to Atlanta 116-113, the Bucks rebounded with a dominant performance in Game 2, crushing the Hawks 125-91 and easily covering as 8.5-point home favorites. Now the series shifts to Atlanta. Tonight's pivotal Game 3 opened with Milwaukee listed as a 5-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the short spread with the Bucks coming off a 34-point blowout victory. However, despite a majority of bets backing the Bucks, this line has fallen to Milwaukee -4.5. Some shops are even down to 4. This signals sharp reverse line movement buying low on the home team, with respected wiseguy money grabbing the points with Atlanta. Sharps have also targeted the under. The total has fallen slightly from 224.5 to 224 despite a majority of bets taking the over. The over/under is 1-1 this series. When the total is 215 or higher in the conference finals the under is 28-18 (61%) over the past decade. When the total is 220 or more, the under is 12-3 (80%) in the conference finals over the past decade. The under is 10-3-1 (77%) in Hawks games this postseason. The under is 8-5 (62%) in Bucks games. With the series tied 1-1, the Bucks are a -400 favorite (80% implied probability) to advance to the NBA Finals. The Hawks are a %plussign% 310 dog. 

Updated NBA Title Odds at BetMGM
Suns %plussign% 105
Bucks %plussign% 115
Hawks %plussign% 1400
Clippers %plussign% 2200

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.