Today we finish off the work week with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:05 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves at Tampa Bay Rays (-140, 9)
The Braves (3-9) just took of three against the Phillies, winning last night’s series finale 4-2 in extra innings as -135 home favorites. On the other hand, the Rays (5-7) just dropped two of three against the Angels, falling 11-1 yesterday as -120 home favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Braves hand the ball to righty Bryce Elder (0-0, 6.75 ERA) and the Rays counter with fellow righty Taj Bradley (1-0, 4.91 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a short -110 home favorite and Atlanta a +100 road dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know which side to take. However, despite this even ticket split we’ve seen the Rays get steamed up from -110 to -140. This signals sharp “50/50” line movement in favor of Tampa Bay.
At DraftKings, the Rays are receiving 52% of moneyline bets but 66% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in their favor.
Home favorites are 83-43 (66%) with a 10% ROI this season. Home favorites off a loss are 29-15 (66%) with a 12% ROI. Interleague home favorites are 35-14 (71%) with a 21% ROI. Non-division favorites with steam 10-cents or more in their direction are 37-19 (66%) with an 11% ROI.
The Rays have the edge at the plate, hitting .252 with 43 runs scored compared to the Braves hitting .218 with 38 runs scored. Tampa Bay is 5-4 at home. Atlanta is 0-7 on the road.
The Rays also enjoy a schedule advantage, as Tampa Bay played a day game at home yesterday while the Braves played late into last night following a lengthy rain delay and now must travel to Tampa Bay.
Pros also hit the over, raising the total from 8 to 9. At DraftKings, the over is taking in 45% of bets but 60% of dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers banking on a higher scoring game. The forecast calls for mid 70s with 10 MPH winds blowing out to right center.
7:10 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (-115, 8) at Miami Marlins
The Nationals (5-7) just took two of three against the Dodgers but failed to earn the sweep, losing the series finale 6-5 as +165 home dogs. On the flip side, the Marlins (6-6) just just dropped two of three against the Mets but avoided the sweep with a 5-0 win in the series finale, cashing as +175 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Nationals send out lefty Mitchell Parker (2-0, 0.73 ERA) and the Marlins rebuttal with righty Edward Cabrera, who is making his 2025 debut after going 4-8 with a 4.95 ERA in 2024.
This line opened with Washington listed as a -125 road favorite and Miami a +105 home dog. The public is rushing to the window to lay the chalk with the Nationals, who are taking in 75% of moneyline bets at DraftKings.
However, despite the public backing Washington we’ve seen the Nationals fall from -125 to -115. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Marlins, as the line have moved in their direction (+105 to -105) despite being the unpopular play. Essentially, smart Marlins money is driving this game toward a pick’em.
At DraftKings, the Marlins are receiving 25% of moneyline bets and 44% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split.
Miami has value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting plus money.
8:10 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (-120, 8)
The Tigers (7-5) just took two of three against the Yankees but failed to earn the sweep, losing the series finale 4-3 as +125 home dogs. Meanwhile, the Twins (4-9) just dropped three of four against the Royals, losing yesterday’s series finale 3-2 as +105 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Tigers start righty Reese Olson (1-1, 5.06 ERA) and the Twins send out righty David Festa, who is making his 2025 debut after going 2-6 with a 4.90 ERA in 2024.
This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -110 home favorite and Detroit a +100 road dog. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 74% of moneyline bets at DraftKings are playing Detroit, who has a far better won-loss record.
However, despite the lopsided betting in favor of Detroit we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Minnesota -110 to -120. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on the Twins, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.
Home favorites are 83-43 (66%) with a 10% ROI this season. Home favorites off a loss are 29-15 (66%) with a 12% ROI. The Twins also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the team who is expected to win the game.
Wiseguys have also leaned under, as the total is 8 with the under juiced to -115 or even -120 across the market, hinting at drop down to 7.5. At DraftKings, the under is receiving 59% of bets and 78% of dollars, a sharp bet discrepancy in favor of a lower scoring game.
