Today the work week ends with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:05 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-120, 8.5) at Tampa Bay Rays
The Yankees (12-7) took last night’s series opener 6-3, cashing as -105 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Yankees send out lefty Carlos Rodon (1-3, 5.48 ERA) and the Rays (8-11) turn to righty Drew Rasmussen (1-0, 0.60 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both teams listed around -110 odds. Sharps have pounced on the Yankees at a coin flip price, steaming New York up from -110 to -120.
At Circa, the Yankees are receiving 72% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers backing the Bronx Bombers out in the desert.
Favorites are 174-110 (61%) with a 2% ROI this season. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 92-51 (64%) with a 5% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 119-65 (65%) with a 7% ROI.
New York has a big edge at the plate, hitting 34 homers and scoring 113 runs compared to the Rays hitting only 20 homers and scoring 84 runs. The Yankees are hitting .254 against righties (7th best in MLB). New York also features the better bullpen (3.13 ERA vs 3.47).
Wiseguys also seem to be leaning toward a lower scoring game, as the total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115. The forecast calls for low 80s with 8-10 MPH winds blowing in from right center at Steinbrenner Field.
8:10 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Houston Astros (-150, 9)
This is the first game of a three-game Interleague series.
The Padres (15-4) just took two of three against the Cubs, winning the series finale 4-2 as -115 home favorites. On the other hand, the Astros (8-10) just dropped two of three against the Cardinals, losing the series finale 4-1 as a -110 road pick’em.
In tonight’s series opener, San Diego hands the ball to lefty Kyle Hart (2-0, 5.40 ERA) and Houston counters with righty Ryan Gusto (1-1, 3.00 ERA).
This line opened with the Astros listed as a -125 home favorite and San Diego a +110 road dog. The public thinks the wrong team is favored based on the respective won-loss records and 60% of moneyline bets at DraftKings are backing the plus-money dog Padres
However, despite the public backing San Diego we’ve actually seen this line steam up further toward Houston -125 to -150. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of the Astros at home.
Favorites off a loss, like the Astros here, are 77-39 (66%) with a 12% ROI this season. Interleague home favorites are 39-19 (67%) with a 14% ROI. Interleague home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 19-7 (73%) with a 23% ROI. When both teams are coming off a day off the favorite is 26-6 (81%) with a 35% ROI.
Houston is 7-2 (78%) after a loss this season. The Astros have fishy buy-low value as an unpopular below .500 favorite against a sell-high popular dog with a winning record.
Sharps are also leaning toward a higher scoring game, as the total is 9 with the over juiced to -115. This is a notable contrarian over play as the public is actually playing the under (65% of bets at DraftKings), yet the juice is trending upward.
9:38 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (-155, 8) at Los Angeles Angels
This is the first game of a three-game Interleague series.
The Giants (13-6) just split a four-game series against the Phillies but lost the series finale 6-4 as +170 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Angels (9-9) just got swept by the Rangers, losing the series finale 5-3 as +135 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Giants start righty Logan Webb (2-0, 2.63 ERA) and the Angels tap lefty Tyler Anderson (1-0, 2.87 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -145 road favorite and Los Angeles a +125 home dog. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Giants, steaming San Francisco up from -145 to -155. Some shops are even approaching -160.
At Circa, the Giants are receiving 50% of moneyline bets but 68% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor.
Favorites off a loss are 77-39 (66%) with a 12% ROI this season. The Giants in particular are 4-1 (80%) off a loss. When both teams are coming off a loss, the favorite is 17-7 (71%) with a 14% ROI. Favorites -150 or more are 79-34 (70%) with an 8% ROI.
The Giants have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
San Francisco has the far better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 1.89 (2nd in MLB) compared to 5.91 for the Angels (2nd worst in MLB).
