Today the work week comes to an end with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:20 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs (-155, 8)
The Phillies (13-12) just got swept by the Mets, losing the series finale 4-3 as -115 road favorites. On the other hand, the Cubs (16-10) just swept the Dodgers in a two-game series, winning the final game 7-6 as -135 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series opener, the Phillies hand the ball to righty Taijuan Walker (1-1, 2.29 ERA) and the Cubs turn to fellow righty Colin Rea (0-0, 1.32 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -125 home favorite and Philadelphia a +110 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Cubs laying short chalk at Wrigley, steaming Chicago up from -125 to -155.
At Circa, the Cubs are receiving 63% of moneyline bets and a whopping 88% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy and further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers backing the home chalk out in Vegas.
Home favorites, like the Cubs here, are 167-85 (66%) with a 9% ROI this season. Home favorites with a winning record are 85-34 (71%) with a 16% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 162-88 (65%) with a 7% ROI. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more are 47-20 (70%) with a 13% ROI. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 31-10 (76%) with a 24% ROI.
Chicago has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Cubs have the better bats, hitting .265 with 38 homers and 163 runs scored compared to the Phillies hitting .251 with only 21 homers and 111 runs scored.
The Cubs are 8-5 at home this season. The Phillies are 4-8 on the road.
8:15 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (-130, 8)
The Brewers (13-13) just dropped three of four against the Giants, losing yesterday’s series finale 6-5 as +135 road dogs. Similarly, the Cardinals (10-15) just lost two of three against the Braves, losing the series finale 4-1 as +140 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Brewers tap righty Chad Patrick (1-1, 2.11 ERA) and the Cardinals start lefty Matthew Liberatore (1-2, 3.60 ERA).
This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -120 home favorite and Milwaukee a +105 road dog. Sharps have laid the wood with St. Louis at home, steaming the Cardinals up from -120 to -130.
At Circa, the Cardinals are receiving 56% of moneyline bets but an overwhelming 97% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in their favor.
Home favorites are 167-85 (66%) with a 9% ROI this season. Favorites off a loss are 102-54 (65%) with an 11% ROI. Home favorites off a loss are 66-28 (70%) with an 18% ROI. When both teams are coming off a loss, as is the case here, the favorite is 20-9 (69%) with an 11% ROI.
St. Louis has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Cardinals are hitting .292 at home this season, the best in MLB, and .266 against righties (3rd best).
St. Louis is 8-4 at home this season. Milwaukee is 4-9 on the road.
This is also a schedule edge for Cardinals, who were off yesterday while the Brewers played in San Francisco and now must travel to St. Louis.
10:15 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at San Francisco Giants (-115, 7.5)
The Rangers (14-11) just dropped two of three against the Athletics, losing last night’s series finale 4-3 as -135 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Giants (17-9) just took three of four against the Brewers, winning 6-5 yesterday as -160 home favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Rangers send out righty Nathan Eovaldi (1-2, 2.64 ERA) and the Giants counter with righty Justin Verlander (0-1, 5.47 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both teams listed around -110 odds. Sharps have quietly sided with the Giants laying a coin-flip price at home, driving San Francisco up to a -115 home favorite.
At Circa, the Giants are receiving 63% of moneyline bets but a hefty 87% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split out in Vegas.
Home favorites are 167-85 (66%) with a 9% ROI this season. Home favorites with a winning record are 85-34 (71%) with a 16% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 162-88 (65%) with a 7% ROI. Interleague home favorites are 55-31 (64%) with a 7% ROI.
San Francisco has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
San Francisco has the better offense, hitting .230 with 129 runs scored compared to Texas hitting .222 with only 80 runs scored.
The Giants have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 2.53 (3rd best in MLB) compared to 3.64 for the Rangers.
The Giants are 7-3 at home this season. The Rangers are 4-8 on the road.
This is also a bit of a scheduling edge for the Giants, who played a day game at home yesterday while the Rangers played a late game on the road and now must travel to San Francisco.
