Today we wrap up the work week with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:45 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-190, 8) at Washington Nationals
The Nationals (49-72) stole last night’s series opener 3-2, cashing as +160 home dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Phillies (69-52) hand the ball to righty Zack Wheeler (10-5, 2.68 ERA) and the Nationals turn to lefty MacKenzie Gore (5-12, 4.09 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -170 road favorite and Washington a +150 home dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Phillies to bounce back with a win, steaming Philadelphia up from -170 to -190.
At DraftKings, the Phillies are taking in 85% of moneyline bets and 86% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Philadelphia is receiving 82% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the road chalk.
The Phillies are 31-19 (62%) with a 9% ROI off a loss this season, the 9th best “bounce back” team in MLB. Philadelphia is 39-14 (74%) with a 14% ROI as a favorite with a line move in their direction, 3rd best in MLB.
The Phillies have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Philadelphia has the more productive bats, hitting .253 with 143 homers and 558 runs scored compared to the Nationals hitting .244 with 116 homers and 518 runs scored.
Gore has an 8.00 ERA in two August starts. He is 2-6 with a 4.80 ERA at home. The Phillies are hitting .250 against lefties this season, 10th best in MLB.
The Phillies are 32-31 on the road. The Nationals are 23-36 at home.
8:15 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-135, 9) at St. Louis Cardinals
The Yankees (64-57) just took two of three against the Twins but failed to complete the sweep, dropping the series finale 4-1 as -150 home favorites. On the other hand, the Cardinals (61-61) just lost two of three against the Rockies, losing the series finale 6-5 as -245 home favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Yankees send out righty Luis Gil (0-1, 7.27 ERA) and the Cardinals go with fellow righty Andre Pallante (6-9, 4.95 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -125 road favorite and St. Louis a +105 home dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Yankees laying short road chalk, steaming New York up from -125 to -135.
At DraftKings, the Yankees are receiving 72% of moneyline bets and 73% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, New York is taking in 71% of moneyline bets and a hefty 98% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the respected wiseguy wagers out in the desert backing the road chalk.
When both teams are coming off a loss, as is the case here, the team taking in 10-cents of line movement or more is 48-29 (62%) with an 8% ROI this season. Road favorites off a loss receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 65-36 (64%) with an 8% ROI. Rested favorites coming off a day off are 88-39 (69%) with a 10% ROI.
New York has the edge at the plate, hitting 191 homers and scoring 612 runs compared to St. Louis hitting 115 homers and scoring 526 runs.
The Yankees have additional betting system value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Pallante has a 10.80 ERA in two August starts, allowing 8 earned runs in 6.2 innings pitched.
10:15 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at San Francisco Giants (-130, 8)
The Rays (59-63) just took two of three against the Athletics, winning the series finale 8-2 as -150 road favorites. On the flip side, the Giants (59-62) just got swept by the Padres, dropping the series finale 11-1 as +120 home dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Rays go with righty Joe Boyle (1-2, 3.82 ERA) and the Giants tap fellow righty Landen Roupp (7-6, 3.11 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -135 home favorite and Tampa Bay a +115 road dog.
The public is leaning toward laying the chalk with the Giants at home.
However, despite receiving 56% of moneyline bets at DraftKings, we’ve seen the Giants fall from -135 to -130, with some books even inching down toward -125. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Rays (+115 to +110), as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular side.
At DraftKings, Tampa Bay is receiving 44% of moneyline bets but 60% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Rays are taking in 60% of moneyline bets and 76% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the road dog.
Short dogs +120 or less with a line move in their favor are 26-19 (58%) with a 19% ROI since August 1st.
Tampa Bay has the superior offense, hitting .251 with 136 homers and 546 runs scored compared to San Francisco hitting .232 with 113 homers and 491 runs scored.
The Rays are hitting .261 against righties (2nd in MLB). The Giants are hitting .240 (24th).
The Giants are 7-17 since the All-Star Break, the worst record in MLB.
