Today the work week wraps up with a loaded 14-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at Pittsburgh Pirates (-120, 7)
The Mariners (63-59) just got swept by the Tigers, losing yesterday’s series finale 2-1 as -135 road favorites. Similarly, the Pirates (56-64) just got swept by the Padres, losing Wednesday’s series finale 8-2 as +120 road dogs. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Mariners tap righty Logan Gilbert (7-8, 2.91 ERA) and the Pirates send out righty Paul Skenes (6-2, 2.25 ERA). This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a -135 home favorite and Seattle a +115 road dog. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short home chalk with the rookie phenom Skenes on the bump. However, despite receiving 73% of moneyline bets we’ve seen the Pirates fall from -135 to -120. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Seattle, as the line is moving in their direction (+115 to +105) despite only receiving 27% of moneyline bets. Gilbert has a 0.69 ERA in two August starts, allowing only 1 earned run in 12 innings pitched. Skenes has a 4.76 ERA in two August starts, allowing 6 earned runs in 11.1 innings pitched. Pittsburgh is 1-4 in Skenes’ last five starts. He has a 2.77 ERA at home compared to 1.66 on the road. The Mariners are 4-6 over their last ten games with a team ERA of 4.37. The Pirates are 0-10 over their last ten games with a team ERA of 5.85. Seattle is +24 in run differential. Pittsburgh is -31.
8:10 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians (-115, 8) at Milwaukee Brewers
The Guardians (72-49) just swept the Cubs, winning Wednesday’s series finale 6-1 as -135 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Brewers (69-52) just split a four-game series against the Dodgers, winning 6-4 yesterday as +120 home dogs. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Guardians hand the ball to righty Gavin Williams (2-4, 4.38 ERA) and the Brewers counter with fellow righty Aaron Civale (3-8, 5.02 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em with both sides listed around -105 odds. Sharps have pounced on Cleveland at a cheap pick’em price, steaming the Guardians up from -105 to -115. Cleveland is receiving 56% of moneyline bets and 67% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicating slight public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Non-division road favorites off a win are 145-102 (59%) with a 4% ROI this season. Sweet spot short road favorites -130 or less are 183-148 (55%) with a 3% ROI. The Guardians are 51-22 (70%) with a 23% ROI as a favorite, the best chalk team in MLB. Cleveland also enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage as the Guardians were off yesterday while the Brewers played the Dodgers. Williams has an 8.66 ERA at home but a 0.84 ERA on the road. Civale has a 6.10 ERA in two August starts, allowing 7 earned runs in 10.1 innings pitched.
9:38 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (-160, 8) at Los Angeles Angels
The Braves (64-57) just took three of four against the Giants but failed to earn the sweep by losing yesterday’s series finale 6-0 as +105 road dogs. On the other hand, the Angels (52-69) just got swept by the Blue Jays, losing Wednesday’s series finale 9-2 as -115 home favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Braves turn to righty Spencer Schwellenbach (4-5, 3.95 ERA) and the Angels go with fellow righty Jose Soriano (6-7, 3.36 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -145 road favorite and Los Angeles a +130 home dog. Sharps have jumped on the Braves laying modest road chalk, steaming Atlanta up from -145 to -160. The Braves are receiving roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating both Pro and Joe support in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their direction. Atlanta has a big edge offensively, hitting .240 with 159 homers and 521 runs scored compared to Los Angeles hitting .235 with 122 homers and 486 runs scored. The Braves have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The Braves are 4-2 in Schwellenbach’s last six starts. He has a 2.53 ERA in his last six starts. Soriano has a 4.43 ERA at home compared to 2.74 on the road.
