Today we wrap up the work week and kick off the month of August with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:10 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at New York Mets (-145, 7.5)
The Giants (54-55) have lost six straight and just got swept by the Pirates, losing the series finale 2-1 as -210 home favorites. Similarly, the Mets (62-47) just got swept by the Padres, losing the series finale 5-0 as +100 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Giants hand the ball to lefty Robbie Ray (9-5, 2.93 ERA) and the Mets counter with fellow southpaw David Peterson (7-4, 2.83 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -135 home favorite and San Francisco a +115 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Mets laying modest chalk at home, steaming New York up from -135 to -145.
At Circa, New York is taking in 67% of moneyline bets and 70% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of the Vegas wiseguy wagers backing the home chalk.
When both teams are coming off a loss, as is the case here, the team receiving 10-cents of line movement or more in their favor is 43-26 (62%) with an 8% ROI this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, the favorite is 98-57 (63%) with a 4% ROI.
The Mets are 33-12 (73%) with a 16% ROI as a home favorite, the second best home favorite in MLB.
New York has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Mets have the more productive bats, hitting .241 with 135 homers and 473 runs scored compared to the Giants hitting .232 with 101 homers and 443 runs scored. The Mets are hitting .226 against lefties compared to .215 for the Giants (dead last in MLB).
Peterson posted a 1.05 ERA in four July starts, allowing only 3 earned runs in 25.2 innings pitched. He is 5-0 with a 1.91 ERA at home.
Meanwhile, Ray posted a 3.52 ERA in five July starts, giving up 12 earned runs in 30.2 innings pitched.
The Mets are 37-16 at home. The Giants are 26-29 on the road.
7:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians (-125, 7)
The Twins (51-57) just dropped two of three against the Red Sox, losing the series finale 13-1 as -125 home favorites. On the other hand, the Guardians (54-54) just took two of three against the Rockies, winning the series finale 5-0 as -180 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Twins send out righty Joe Ryan (10-5, 2.82 ERA) and the Guardians go with fellow righty Gavin Williams (6-4, 3.51 ERA).
This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -115 home favorite and Minnesota a -105 road dog.
Sharps are fading the Twins after they dealt away a plethora of players at yesterday’s Trade Deadline, steaming the Guardians up from -115 to -125.
At DraftKings, the Guardians are receiving 66% of moneyline bets and 78% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Cleveland is taking in 65% of moneyline bets and a hefty 97% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a heavy “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 98-57 (63%) with a 4% ROI this season. Home favorites off a win receiving line movement in their favor who made the playoffs the previous season are 134-67 (67%) with a 5% ROI.
The Guardians are 18-10 (64%) with a 6% ROI as a home favorite, including 11-5 (69%) with a 14% ROI as a home favorite with a line move in their direction.
Cleveland has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Williams is 5-2 with a 3.05 ERA at home this season.
Cleveland has performed better as of late, going 6-4 in their last ten games and hitting .271 with a 3.33 team ERA compared to Minnesota going 4-6 and hitting .245 with a 5.61 team ERA.
The Guardians are 27-26 at home. The Twins are 21-33 on the road.
9:40 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres (-185, 7.5)
The Cardinals (55-55) just dropped two of three against the Marlins, losing the series finale 2-0 as -140 home favorites. On the flip side, the Padres (60-49) have won five straight and just swept the Mets, winning the series finale 5-0 as -125 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Cardinals trot out lefty Matthew Liberatore (6-8, 4.04 ERA) and the Padres turn to righty Nick Pivetta (10-3, 2.81 ERA).
This line opened with San Diego listed as a -150 home favorite and St. Louis a +130 road dog.
Sharps have pounded the Padres at home, steaming San Diego up from -150 to -185.
At DraftKings, the Padres are taking in 84% of moneyline bets and 86% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy Pro and Joe support. At Circa, San Diego is receiving 79% of moneyline bets and 97% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the desert smart money laying the wood with the home team.
Favorites off a win with a winning record receiving 5-cents of movement or more in their favor who made the playoffs the previous season are 130-58 (69%) with a 7% ROI this season. Series opening home favorites receiving big steam 20-cents or more are 62-25 (71%) with a 9% ROI. When both teams are coming off a day off, the favorite is 98-57 (63%) with a 4% ROI.
The Padres are 26-13 (67%) with an 11% ROI as a home favorite, the 5th best home favorite in MLB.
San Diego has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Pivetta posted a 1.17 ERA in five July starts, allowing only 4 earned runs in 30.2 innings pitched. He is 6-0 with a 2.07 ERA at home.
Meanwhile, Liberatore posted a 6.57 ERA in three July starts, giving up 9 earned runs in 12.1 innings pitched.
San Diego is 34-18 at home. St. Louis is 23-31 on the road.
