Today we wrap up the work week with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:45 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies (-185, 9.5)
The Nationals (52-75) just took two of three against the Mets, winning yesterday’s series finale 9-3 as +115 home dogs. Meanwhile, the Phillies (74-53) just swept the Mariners, winning the series finale 11-2 as -145 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Nationals hand the ball to righty Cade Cavalli (1-0, 2.20 ERA) and the Phillies counter with fellow righty Taijuan Walker (4-6, 3.34 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -175 home favorite and Washington a +155 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have laid the wood with the Phillies, steaming Philadelphia up from -175 to -185.
At DraftKings, the Phillies are receiving 85% of moneyline bets and 89% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Phillies are taking in over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing a lopsided Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the home chalk.
When both teams are coming off a win, as is the case here, the home team is 91-53 (63%) with a 16% ROI this season. The Phillies are 37-17 (69%) with an 8% ROI as a home favorite, the 4th best home favorite in MLB. When favored and receiving line movement in their direction the Phillies are 44-15 (75%) with a 16% ROI, the best in MLB.
Philadelphia also enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Phillies were off yesterday while the Nationals played the Mets. Rested home favorites coming off a day off are 71-29 (71%) with an 11% ROI this season.
The Phillies have the better bats, hitting .258 with 156 homers and 604 runs scored compared to the Nationals hitting .244 with 120 homers and 546 runs scored.
Walker has a 1.45 ERA in three August starts, allowing only 3 earned runs in 18.2 innings pitched.
Philadelphia is 40-21 at home. Washington is 26-36 on the road.
7:15 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (-115, 8.5)
The Mets (67-60) just dropped two of three against the Nationals, losing yesterday’s series finale 9-3 as -135 road favorites. On the other hand, the Braves (58-69) just took two of three against the White Sox, winning the series finale 1-0 as -185 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Mets send out righty Nolan McLean (1-0, 0.00 ERA) and the Braves turn to lefty Joey Wentz (4-3, 4.72 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
The public is siding with the Mets, who have the far better won-loss record. However, despite 56% of moneyline bets at DraftKings backing New York, we’ve actually seen this line move further toward the Braves -110 to -115, with some shops even touching -120. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Atlanta, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.
At Circa, the Braves are receiving 50% of moneyline bets but 65% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the respected wiseguy wagers in Vegas backing the home team.
Short home favorites -140 or less off a win with a line move in their favor are 56-36 (61%) with a 10% ROI since July 1st. Short home favorites -140 or less with a below .500 record playing an opponent with an above .500 record are 55-41 (57%) with a 4% ROI this season.
The Braves also enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage, as Atlanta was off yesterday while the Mets played the Nationals. Rested home favorites coming off a day off are 71-29 (71%) with an 11% ROI this season.
Wentz has pitched well in his last two starts, allowing only 2 earned runs in 11.1 innings pitched (both Braves wins). The Mets are only hitting .227 against lefties this season (24th in MLB).
Atlanta is 7-3 against New York this season.
The Braves are 32-31 at home. The Mets are 26-36 on the road.
7:10 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (-165, 8) at Miami Marlins
The Blue Jays (74-54) just dropped two of three against the Pirates, losing the series finale 2-1 as -160 road favorites. Similarly, the Marlins (60-67) just lost two of three against the Cardinals but avoided the sweep, winning the series finale 6-2 as -115 home favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Blue Jays tap righty Shane Bieber, who is making his 2025 debut, while the Marlins are expected to trot out fellow righty Ryan Gusto (7-5, 4.89 ERA).
This line opened with Toronto listed as a -155 road favorite and Miami a +135 home dog.
Sharps have jumped on Bieber making his season and team debut, driving the Blue Jays up from -155 to -165, with some shops even touching -170.
At DraftKings, the Blue Jays are taking in 82% of moneyline bets and 86% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicating one-way public and sharp support in favor of the road chalk.
Rested favorites coming off a day off are 91-40 (70%) with a 10% ROI this season. If priced -150 or more, they improve to 58-18 (76%) with a 14% ROI.
Toronto has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game. The Blue Jays also have betting system value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity also benefiting the team who is expected to win.
The Blue Jays have the better bats, hitting .267 with 151 homers and 625 runs scored compared to the Marlins hitting .251 with 124 homers and 549 runs scored. Toronto is hitting .265 on the road (2nd best in MLB). Miami is hitting .244 at home (21st).
Bieber has posted a 1.86 ERA in 7 rehab appearances in the minors leading up to tonight’s debut.
