Today we wrap up the work week with a loaded 16 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:05 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at Baltimore Orioles (-145, 9)
The Marlins (42-50) just split a four-game series against the Reds, falling 6-0 yesterday as +140 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Orioles (42-50) just took two of three against the Mets, sweeping yesterday’s doubleheader 3-1 as +120 home dogs and winning again 7-2 as +105 home dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Marlins start righty Edward Cabrera (3-3, 3.33 ERA) and the Orioles tap fellow righty Dean Kremer (7-7, 4.53 ERA).
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -130 home favorite and Miami a +110 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Orioles laying short chalk at home, steaming Baltimore up from -130 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Orioles are taking in 69% of moneyline bets and 73% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Baltimore is receiving only 43% of moneyline bets but a whopping 97% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy and further evidence of the respected pro wagers out in desert backing the home team.
When both teams are below .500, as is the case here, the home favorite off a win is 50-26 (66%) with a 6% ROI this season. Home favorites who made the postseason the previous year receiving line movement in their direction are 193-98 (66%) with a 5% ROI. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more are 138-71 (66%) with a 5% ROI.
The Orioles have additional betting system value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Kremer is 4-2 with a 2.37 ERA at home compared to 3-5 with a 5.83 ERA on the road.
8:10 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at Minnesota Twins (-140, 7)
The Pirates (38-56) just got swept by the Royals, losing the series finale 4-3 as +160 road dogs. On the other hand, the Twins (45-48) just took two of three against the Cubs but failed to earn the sweep, losing 8-1 yesterday as -105 home dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Pirates send out righty Paul Skenes (4-7, 1.94 ERA) and the Twins go with fellow righty Joe Ryan (8-4, 2.76 ERA).
This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -120 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +100 road dog.
The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know which side to take. However, despite this 50/50 moneyline ticket count at DraftKings we’ve seen the Twins jump up from -120 to -140.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the 20-cent adjustment we can infer that the respected pro money is siding with the Twins at home.
At Circa, Minnesota is taking in 67% of moneyline bets and a hefty 96% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of smart money backing the home chalk in Vegas.
When both team missed the playoffs the previous season, as is the case here, the home Interleague favorite is 62-33 (65%) with a 7% ROI this season. When both teams are coming off a loss, the team receiving 10-cents of steam or more in their favor is 36-21 (63%) with a 10% ROI.
The Twins have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Minnesota has the better bats, hitting .239 with 107 homers and 387 runs scored compared to Pittsburgh hitting .230 with only 64 homers and 319 runs scored.
The Twins are 26-19 at home. The Pirates are 12-35 on the road, the 3rd worst road record in MLB.
10:05 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (-165, 10.5) at Athletics
The Blue Jays (54-39) just took two of three against the White Sox but failed to complete the sweep, losing the series finale 2-1 as -145 road favorites. Similarly, the Athletics (39-56) just took two of three against the Braves, winning 5-4 in extra innings yesterday as a +160 home dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Blue Jays hand the ball to righty Max Scherzer (0-0, 4.76 ERA) and the Athletics counter with fellow righty Luis Severino (2-10, 5.30 ERA).
This line opened with Toronto listed as a -145 road favorite and the Athletics a +125 home dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Blue Jays laying modest chalk, steaming Toronto up from -145 to -165.
At DraftKings, the Blue Jays are receiving 85% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Toronto is taking in 85% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a heavy “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the road chalk.
Road favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win, like the Blue Jays here, are 121-81 (60%) with a 3% ROI this season. Toronto also enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Blue Jays were off yesterday while the Athletics played the Braves. Rested favorites coming off a day off receiving at least 5-cents of line movement in their favor are 71-31 (70%) with a 9% ROI this season.
Toronto is 26-15 (63%) with a 7% ROI as a favorite this season, the 4th best chalk team in MLB. When favored and playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season the Blue Jays are 20-10 (67%) with an 11% ROI.
Severino has given up 5 earned runs or more in 5 of his last 7 starts. He is 0-8 with a 7.04 ERA at home this season.
The Blue Jays are 4-0 against the Athletics this season.
