The MLB All-Star Break is over and the unofficial second half of the season begins today with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits. which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:20 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at Chicago Cubs (-135, 7.5)
The Red Sox (53-45) are riding a ten-game winning streak and just swept the Rays, winning the series finale 4-1 as -125 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Cubs (57-39) just took two of three against the Yankees, winning the series finale 4-1 as +105 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s Interleague series opener, the Red Sox hand the ball to righty Lucas Giolito (6-1, 3.36 ERA) and the Cubs turn to fellow righty Colin Rea (7-3, 3.91 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -125 home favorite and Boston a +105 road dog.
Sharps are fading the red-hot Red Sox and have laid the short chalk with the Cubs at Wrigley, steaming Chicago up from -125 to -135.
At Circa, the Cubs are only receiving 55% of moneyline bets but a whopping 97% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split and further evidence of the bigger, more respected wiseguy wagers backing the home team out in Vegas.
Chicago has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Cubs have the more explosive offense, hitting 142 homers and scoring 512 runs compared to the Red Sox hitting 122 homers and scoring 491 runs.
The Cubs are 30-16 at home, the second best home record in MLB. The Red Sox are 21-25 on the road.
7:07 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Toronto Blue Jays (-150, 8.5)
The Giants (52-45) just dropped two of three against the Dodgers, losing the series finale 5-2 in extra innings as +120 home dogs. Similarly, the Blue Jays (55-41) just lost two of three against the Athletics, dropping the series finale 6-3 as -135 road favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Giants send out righty Justin Verlander (0-7, 4.70 ERA) and the Blue Jays go with fellow righty Chris Bassitt (9-4, 4.12 ERA).
This line opened with Toronto listed as a -140 home favorite and San Francisco a +120 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Blue Jays laying modest chalk at home, steaming Toronto up from -140 to -150.
At DraftKings, the Blue Jays are receiving 76% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Blue Jays are taking in 79% of moneyline bets and a hefty 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp, one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Toronto has betting system value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Blue Jays have a notable edge at the plate, hitting .258 with 101 homers and 440 runs scored compared to the Giants only hitting .229 with 89 homers and 399 runs scored.
The Blue Jays are hitting .271 at home, 2nd best in MLB. The Giants are hitting .224 on the road, ranking 27th.
Bassitt is 6-0 with a 2.81 ERA at home this season. Verlander is 0-2 with a 4.99 ERA on the road and 0-6 with a 5.18 ERA at night.
Toronto is 32-16 at home, the 3rd best home team in MLB. San Francisco is 24-25 on the road.
8:05 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers (-110, 8.5)
The Tigers (59-38) have lost four straight and just got swept by the Mariners, dropping the series finale 8-4 as -115 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Rangers (48-49) just took two of three against the Astros, winning the series finale 5-1 as +115 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Tigers start righty Reese Olson (4-3, 2.95 ERA) and the Rangers go with lefty Patrick Corbin (6-7, 4.15 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -120 road favorite and Texas a +100 home dog.
The public can’t believe this line is so short and they’re rushing to the window to back the Tigers, who have the best record in MLB.
However, despite 70% of moneyline bets backing the Tigers at DraftKings, we’ve seen this line plummet away from Detroit and toward Texas, moving the matchup down to a -110 pick’em. Some books are even showing the Rangers a slight -115 home favorite. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular home team.
At Circa, Texas is taking in 42% of moneyline bets but a heavy 92% of moneyline dollars, a massive sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of Vegas smart money backing the home team.
Olson is 1-2 with a 3.52 ERA on the road compared to 3-1 with a 2.30 ERA at home. He is also 1-2 with a 4.34 ERA at night compared to 3-1 with a 1.55 ERA in the day.
Corbin is 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA in two July starts, allowing only 4 earned runs in 11 innings pitched.
Texas has performed better than Detroit recently, hitting .258 with a 3.77 team ERA over their last ten games compared to the Tigers hitting .210 with a 5.40 team ERA.
