Today we wrap up the work week with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:20 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs (-115, 7)
The Cubs (42-27) took last night’s series opener 3-2, coming through as -200 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s rematch, the Pirates (28-42) hand the ball to righty Paul Skenes (4-6, 1.88 ERA) and the Cubs counter with fellow righty Cade Horton (3-1, 4.11 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Cubs at a coin-flip price at home, driving Chicago up from -110 to -115. Some shops are even approaching -120.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are receiving 60% of moneyline bets and 74% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Chicago is taking in 75% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of another Cubs win at Wrigley.
The Cubs are 33-13 (72%) with a 16% ROI as a favorite, the best chalk team in MLB. If the Cubs are favored and also receive line movement in their direction, Chicago improves to 30-8 (79%) with a 27% ROI.
Chicago has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Cubs have the better bats, hitting .256 with 96 homers and 379 runs scored compared to the Pirates only hitting .228 with 49 homers and 227 runs scored. Chicago is hitting .259 against righties (4th best in MLB) while Pittsburgh is only hitting .233 (26th).
Chicago is 21-11 at home. Pittsburgh is 9-23 on the road.
The Cubs are 17-13 in day games. The Pirates are 11-17.
9:40 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks (-130, 9.5)
The Padres (38-29) just dropped two of three against the Dodgers, losing the series finale 5-2 as +130 home dogs. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks (34-34) just swept the Mariners, winning the series finale 5-2 as -120 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Padres send out righty Stephen Kolek (3-1, 3.00 ERA) and the Diamondbacks turn to fellow righty Ryne Nelson (2-2, 4.60 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -120 home favorite and San Diego a +105 road dog.
The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this 50/50 moneyline bet split at DraftKings we’ve seen the Diamondbacks jump up from -120 to -130. Some shops are even approaching -135.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the line move we can infer that pro money is siding with the Snakes at home.
At Circa, Arizona is taking in 75% of moneyline bets and a whopping 96% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger wiseguy wagers out in the desert backing Arizona.
When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 69-39 (64%) with a 4% ROI this season. Sweet spot home favorites -130 to -150 playing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season are 41-22 (65%) with a 13% ROI.
Arizona has the better offense, hitting .255 with 98 homers and 346 runs scored compared to San Diego hitting .247 with 57 homers and 279 runs scored.
The Diamondbacks are hitting .260 against righties (3rd best) while the Padres are hitting .254 (11th).
Nelson has a 2.67 ERA at home compared to 7.50 on the road.
10:10 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers (-180, 7.5)
The Giants (40-29) just took two of three against the Rockies but failed to complete the sweep, losing 8-7 yesterday as -215 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Dodgers (41-28) just took two of three against the Padres, winning the series finale 5-2 as -155 road favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Giants tap righty Logan Webb (5-5, 2.58 ERA) and the Dodgers go with fellow righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6-4, 2.20 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -165 home favorite and San Francisco a +140 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive price and have laid the wood with the Dodgers, steaming Los Angeles up from -165 to -180.
At DraftKings, the Dodgers are receiving 86% of moneyline bets and 96% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Los Angeles is taking in 62% of moneyline bets and 69% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
Home favorites who made the postseason the previous year, like the Dodgers here, are 206-113 (65%) with a 4% ROI this season. If they are also receiving line movement in their direction, they improve to 140-66 (68%) with an 8% ROI.
Big home favorites -170 or more in the opening game of a new series are 57-18 (76%) with an 11% ROI. The Dodgers also enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage, as they were off yesterday while the Giants played in Colorado and now must travel to Los Angeles.
Los Angeles has has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Dodgers have the better bats, hitting .265 with 105 homers and 381 runs scored compared to the Giants only hitting .233 with 65 homers and 194 runs scored.
Webb is 2-4 with a 3.95 ERA on the road compared to 3-1 with a 1.36 ERA at home.
