Today the work week comes to an end with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:07 p.m. ET: Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays (-175, 8.5)
The Blue Jays (28-28) dominated last night’s series opener 12-0, easily taking care of business as -165 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Athletics (23-34) hand the ball to lefty Jeffrey Springs (5-3, 3.97 ERA) and the Blue Jays counter with righty Chris Bassitt (4-3, 3.38 ERA).
This line opened with Toronto listed as a -150 home favorite and the Athletics a +130 road dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand, steaming the Blue Jays up from -150 to -175.
At Circa, the Blue Jays are taking in 75% of moneyline bets and a whopping 96% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of the bigger, more respected wagers playing the home team out in Vegas.
Toronto has betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
Home favorites -170 or more with line movement in their direction are 126-51 (71%) with a 3% ROI this season.
Toronto has pitched far better as of late, sporting a team ERA of 2.15 over their last ten games compared to 7.38 for the Athletics. The Blue Jays also have the superior bullpen, boasting a team ERA of 3.52 compared to 6.07 for the Athletics (3rd worst in MLB).
Bassitt is 3-0 with a 1.61 ERA at home compared to 1-3 with a 4.86 on the road. The Blue Jays are 4-1 in his last five starts.
Toronto is hitting .255 against lefties (8th best in MLB) and .260 at home (7th). Meanwhile, the Athletics are hitting .246 against righties (16th) and .238 on the road (18th).
8:05 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (-140, 8.5) at Texas Rangers
The Cardinals (32-24) just took two of three against the Orioles, winning the series finale 6-4 as -105 road dogs. On the other hand, the Rangers (27-30) just dropped two of three against the Blue Jays, losing the series finale 2-0 as -150 home favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Cardinals send out lefty Michael Liberatore (3-3, 2.73 ERA) and the Rangers go with righty Jack Leiter (3-2, 4.17 ERA).
This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -130 road favorite and Texas a +110 home dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Cardinals laying modest chalk, steaming St. Louis up from -130 to -140.
At DraftKings, the Cardinals are taking in 74% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, St. Louis is receiving 60% of moneyline bets and 79% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the road chalk.
When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 56-28 (67%) with an 8% ROI this season. Sweet spot Interleague favorites -135 to -160 are 42-35 (63%) with a 6% ROI.
St. Louis has the better offense, hitting .262 with 269 runs scored compared to Texas only hitting .219 with 185 runs scored.
Liberatore has a 2.22 ERA in five May starts, allowing only 7 earned runs in 28.1 innings pitched. Meanwhile, Leiter has a 5.20 ERA in five May starts, giving up 16 earned runs in 27.2 innings pitched.
9:40 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres (-200, 7.5)
The Pirates (21-36) just took two of three against the Diamondbacks, winning the series finale 10-1 as +115 road dogs. Similarly, the Padres (31-23) just took two of three against the Marlins but lost the series finale 10-8 as -160 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Pirates start righty Mitch Keller (1-6, 3.66 ERA) and the Padres turn to fellow righty Nick Pivetta (5-2, 2.72 ERA).
This line opened with San Diego listed as a -185 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +165 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive price and have gotten down hard on the Padres, steaming San Diego up from -185 to -200.
At DraftKings, the Padres are receiving 88% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Padres are taking in 75% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe support in favor of the home chalk.
Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 175-90 (66%) with a 6% ROI this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 56-28 (67%) with an 8% ROI. Home favorites in the opening game of a new series are 108-57 (66%) with a 5% ROI.
San Diego has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Padres have the better bats, hitting .253 with 52 homers and 233 runs scored compared to the Pirates only hitting .226 with 40 homers and 183 runs scored.
Pivetta is 4-0 with a 1.44 ERA at home this season.
San Diego is 18-9 at home. Pittsburgh is 8-20 on the road.
