Today we end the work week with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:05 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (-120, 9.5) at Tampa Bay Rays
The Brewers (19-19) just took two of three against the Astros but failed to earn the sweep, losing the series finale 9-1 as +115 home dogs. On the other hand, the Rays (16-21) just got swept by the Phillies, losing yesterday’s series finale 7-6 in extra innings as +140 home dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Brewers hand the ball to lefty Jose Quintana (4-1, 2.83 ERA) and the Rays turn to righty Zack Littell (2-5, 4.61 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have pounced on the Brewers at a coin flip price, steaming Milwaukee up from -110 to -120.
At DraftKings, the Brewers are receiving 67% of moneyline bets and 71% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Brewers are taking in 62% of moneyline bets and 75% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the Brew Crew earning a road victory.
When both teams are coming off a loss, as is the case here, the favorite is 27-11 (71%) with a 15% ROI this season. Favorites with line movement in their direction who made the postseason the previous year are 132-52 (68%) with a 9% ROI. Interleague favorites are 98-58 (63%) with a 6% ROI.
The Brewers also enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage, as Milwaukee was off yesterday while the Rays played an extra innings game against the Phillies. Rested favorites coming off a day off are 60-26 (70%) with a 14% ROI this season.
Milwaukee is hitting .244 against righties this season (18th). Tampa Bay is only hitting .197 against lefties (27th).
Quintana has a 1.00 ERA on the road compared to 5.91 at home. Littell has a 5.06 ERA at home compared to 4.32 on the road.
7:40 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (-150, 8.5) at Chicago White Sox
The Marlins (14-22) just dropped two of three against the Dodgers, falling 10-1 in the series finale as +185 home dogs. On the other hand, the White Sox (10-28) just got swept by the Royals, losing 10-0 yesterday as +210 road dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Marlins start righty Max Meyer (2-3, 3.92 ERA) and the White Sox go with fellow righty Bryse Wilson (0-1, 5.56 ERA).
This line opened with Miami listed as a -140 road favorite and Chicago a +120 home dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Marlins on the road, steaming Miami up from -140 to -150. Some shops are even approaching -155.
At DraftKings, the Marlins are receiving 80% of moneyline bets and dollars. At Circa, the Marlins are taking in 80% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing heavy one-way support in favor of the Fish on the road.
Interleague favorites are 98-58 (63%) with a 6% ROI this season. Favorites off a loss are 143-87 (62%) with a 5% ROI. Below .500 favorites against teams that missed the postseason the previous year are 88-47 (65%) with an 8% ROI.
The Marlins also enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage, as Miami was off yesterday while the White Sox played the Royals in Kansas City and now must travel back to Chicago. Rested favorites coming off a day off are 60-26 (70%) with a 14% ROI this season.
Miami has the better bats, hitting .249 with 32 homers and 157 runs scored compared to Chicago only hitting .216 with 26 homers and 128 runs scored.
The Marlins are hitting .245 on the road (12th). The White Sox are only hitting .216 at home (27th).
8:10 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (-110, 9) at Minnesota Twins
The Giants (24-14) just took two of three against the Cubs, winning the series finale 3-1 as +135 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Twins (18-20) just swept the Orioles, winning 5-2 yesterday as -140 home favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Giants trot out righty Jordan Hicks (1-3, 6.03 ERA) and the Twins rebuttal with fellow righty Chris Paddack (0-3, 5.57 ERA).
This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -120 home favorite and San Francisco a +100 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Giants as a short road dog, steaming San Francisco from +100 to -110. Essentially, smart Giants money has turned this game into a pick’em.
At DraftKings, the Giants are receiving 67% of moneyline bets and 77% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Giants are taking in 69% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger sharper wagers backing the road team out in Vegas.
The Giants enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage, as San Francisco was off yesterday while the Twins played at home against the Orioles.
San Francisco has the more explosive bats, hitting 39 homers and scoring 183 runs compared to the Twins only hitting 33 homers and scoring 152 runs.
The Giants also have the far better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 2.47 (3rd best in MLB) compared to 3.42 for the Twins.
