Today a new week begins with a smaller than usual 8-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Detroit Tigers (-145, 8)
The Padres (16-6) just dropped two of three against the Astros but avoided the sweep with a 3-2 win last night, cashing as +105 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Tigers (13-9) just took three of four against the Royals but failed to earn the sweep, losing 4-3 in extra innings yesterday as -220 home favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Padres hand the ball to righty Randy Vasquez (1-1, 1.74 ERA) and the Tigers turn to fellow righty Keider Montero (0-1, 9.00 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -130 home favorite and San Diego a +115 road dog. The public thinks the wrong team might be favored and 56% of moneyline bets at DraftKings are backing the Padres as a plus money dog.
However, despite the public backing San Diego we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Detroit -130 to -145. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on the Tigers, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, Detroit is only receiving 44% of moneyline bets but 53% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in their favor.
Favorites off a loss, like the Tigers here, are 90-45 (67%) with a 13% ROI this season. Home favorites off a loss are 56-25 (69%) with a 17% ROI. Interleague home favorites are 48-25 (66%) with a 12% ROI. Monday home favorites with steam 10-cents or more are 7-2 this season and 43-17 (72%) with a 10% ROI since 2024. Home favorites with a winning record are 73-27 (73%) with an 18% ROI.
The Tigers have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Detroit is 8-2 at home this season. San Diego is 4-5 on the road.
This is also a sneaky schedule spot advantage for the Tigers, who played a day game at home yesterday while the Padres played the late Sunday Night game and now must travel to Detroit. San Diego is also expected to miss slugger Luis Arraez, who left last night’s game after an on-field collision.
7:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets (-125, 8)
The Phillies (13-9) just took two of three against the Marlins but failed to earn the sweep, losing 7-5 in extra innings yesterday as -315 home favorites. On the other hand, the Mets (15-7) just swept the Cardinals, winning 7-4 yesterday as -135 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Phillies send out righty Aaron Nola (0-4, 6.65 ERA) and the Mets go with fellow righty Tylor Megill (2-2, 1.40 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a short -115 home favorite and Philadelphia a +105 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the red-hot Mets laying short chalk at home, steaming New York up from -115 to -125.
At DraftKings, the Mets are taking in 52% of moneyline bets and 57% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Mets are receiving 81% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp discrepancy in favor of New York.
Monday home favorites with a line move in their favor, like the Mets here, are 12-4 (75%) this season and 62-30 (67%) with a 7% ROI since 2024. Favorites with line moves in their favor are 144-76 (66%) with an 8% ROI. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 110-59 (65%) with a 6% ROI. Home favorites with a winning record are 73-27 (73%) with an 18% ROI. Home favorites are 145-73 (67%) with a 10% ROI. Monday home favorites with steam 10-cents or more are 7-2 this season and 43-17 (72%) with a 10% ROI since 2024.
The Mets have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Mets are 9-1 at home this season. The Phillies are 4-5 on the road.
New York has the far better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 2.27 (3rd best) compared to 5.81 for the Phillies (2nd worst).
7:15 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves (-190, 8.5)
The Cardinals (9-13) just got swept by the Mets, losing 7-4 yesterday as +125 road dogs. On the flip side, the Braves (8-13) just swept the Twins, winning 6-2 yesterday as -115 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Cardinals trot out righty Erick Fedde (1-2, 3.43 ERA) and the Braves counter with fellow righty Spencer Schwellenbach (1-1, 2.55 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -175 home favorite and St. Louis a +150 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have gotten down hard on the Braves, steaming Atlanta up from -175 to -190. Some shops are even approaching -200.
At Circa, the Braves are receiving 75% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers laying the chalk out in Vegas.
Home favorites are 145-73 (67%) with a 10% ROI this season. Favorites with line moves in their favor are 144-76 (66%) with an 8% ROI. Non-division favorites with steam 10-cents or more are 54-29 (65%) with a 9% ROI. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 110-59 (65%) with a 6% ROI. Monday home favorites with steam 10-cents or more are 7-2 this season and 43-17 (72%) with a 10% ROI since 2024. Favorites -150 or more are 90-41 (69%) with a 5% ROI.
Atlanta has additional value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Braves are 6-2 at home this season. The Cardinals are 1-9 on the road.
The Braves have the better bullpen (team ERA 3.73 vs 4.64).
Atlanta is hitting .293 at home this season, the best in MLB. The Cardinals are hitting .228 on the road, ranking 15th.
