Today we kick off a new week with a smaller than usual 8-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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4:05 p.m. ET: New York Mets (-170, 9.5) at Washington Nationals
This is the final game of a four-game series. The Nationals (13-15) have taken two of the first three games, winning 8-7 yesterday as +130 home dogs.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Mets (19-9) hand the ball to righty Griffin Canning (3-1, 3.12 ERA) and the Nationals turn to fellow righty Trevor Williams (1-2, 5.11 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -150 road favorite and Washington a +130 home dog. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Mets to earn a series split, steaming New York up from -150 to -170.
At DraftKings, the Mets are receiving 85% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Mets are taking in 60% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet discrepancy in favor of the road chalk.
Favorites off a loss, like the Mets here, are 112-62 (64%) with an 8% ROI this season. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 183-101 (64%) with a 6% ROI. Favorites who made the postseason the previous year are 132-77 (63%) with a 3% ROI. Favorites -150 or more are 117-50 (70%) with a 7% ROI.
The Mets have the far better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 2.76 (5th best) compared to 6.20 for Washington (dead last in MLB).
New York has typically bounced back after losses this season, going is 7-1 (88%).
The Mets have gone 4-0 in Canning’s four April starts. He has allowed 1 run or fewer if three of those four starts.
6:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians (-130, 8)
This is the opening game of a four-game series.
The Twins (12-16) just swept the Angels, winning 5-0 yesterday as -180 home favorites. On the other hand, the Guardians (15-12) just dropped two of three against the Red Sox, falling 13-3 yesterday as +100 home dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Twins send out righty Bailey Ober (2-1, 5.04 ERA) and the Guardians counter with fellow righty Gavin Williams (2-1, 4.15 ERA).
This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -115 home favorite and Minnesota a +105 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Guardians laying short chalk at home, steaming Cleveland up from -115 to -130.
At DraftKings, the Guardians are receiving 75% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Guardians are taking in 83% of moneyline bets and a whopping 97% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing heavy “low bets, higher dollars” support in favor of home chalk Cleveland.
Home favorites off a loss, like the Guardians here, are 72-33 (69%) with a 15% ROI this season. Home favorites with a winning record are 95-42 (69%) with a 12% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 183-101 (64%) with a 6% ROI. Favorites who made the postseason the previous year are 132-77 (63%) with a 3% ROI. Monday home favorites with line movement in their direction are 16-4 (80%) with a 25% ROI.
Cleveland has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Guardians are 8-4 at home this season. The Twins are 3-10 on the road.
Cleveland has the more explosive bats, hitting .237 with 30 homers compared to Minnesota hitting just .226 with 21 homers.
6:35 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-130, 9) at Baltimore Orioles
This is is the opening game of a three-game series.
The Yankees (17-11) just took two of three against the Blue Jays, sweeping yesterday’s doubleheader 11-2 as -205 home favorites and 5-1 as -165 home favorites. On the other hand, the Orioles (10-17) just got swept by the Tigers, falling 7-0 yesterday as +205 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Yankees tap righty Will Warren (1-0, 4.79 ERA) and the Orioles rebuttal with fellow righty Tomoyuki Sugano (2-1, 3.54 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -115 road favorite and Baltimore a +105 home dog.
Wiseguys have gotten down hard on the Yankees at a cheap chalk price, steaming New York up from -115 to -130.
At Circa, the Yankees are taking in 72% of moneyline bets and a hefty 90% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” split and further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers backing the Bronx Bombers out in Vegas.
Favorites with line movement in their direction are 183-101 (64%) with a 6% ROI this season. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 132-77 (63%) with a 3% ROI.
The Yankees have a big edge at the plate, hitting .262 with 45 homers and 155 runs scored compared to the Orioles hitting only .223 with 33 homers and 108 runs scored.
New York has the superior bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.20 (7th best) compared to 4.75 for Baltimore (7th worst).
The Yankees are hitting .256 on the road (4th best) while the Orioles are hitting .235 at home (24th).
