Today a new week begins with a smaller than usual 11 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:05 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees (-185, 9)
The Twins (56-61) just took two of three against the Royals, winning yesterday’s series finale 5-3 as a -110 home pick’em. On the other hand, the Yankees (62-56) just lost two of three against the Astros, falling 7-1 yesterday as -225 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Twins hand the ball to righty Zebby Matthews (3-3, 5.17 ERA) and the Yankees counter with fellow righty Will Warren (6-5, 4.44 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -165 home favorite and Minnesota a +140 road dog.
Sharps have laid the chalk with the Bronx Bombers at home, steaming the Yankees up from -165 to -185.
At Circa, New York is taking in 42% of moneyline bets but 82% of moneyline dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy and further evidence of the wiseguy wagers out in Vegas backing the home team.
Monday home teams with a line move in their favor are 62-38 (62%) with a 7% ROI this season. Home favorites in the opening game of a new series receiving big steam 20-cents or more in their direction are 67-27 (71%) with a 9% ROI.
New York has betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Yankees have the more productive bats, hitting 183 homers and scoring 596 runs compared to the Twins hitting 138 homers and scoring 494 runs.
Warren has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 5 of his last 6 starts. He is 5-3 with a 2.88 ERA at home this season.
Meanwhile, Matthews has allowed 5 earned runs or more in 2 of his last 4 starts. He has a 5.63 ERA on the road.
The Yankees are 35-24 at home. The Twins are 24-36 on the road.
7:40 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (-145, 9) at Chicago White Sox
The Tigers (68-51) just took two of three against the Angels, winning yesterday’s series finale 9-5 as -190 home favorites. On the flip side, the White Sox (43-75) just dropped two of three against the Guardians but avoided the sweep by winning 6-4 yesterday as +110 home dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Tigers send out righty Chris Paddack (4-10, 4.91 ERA) and the White Sox go with fellow righty Elvis Peguero (0-0, 4.91 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -135 road favorite and Chicago a +115 home dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Tigers laying modest road chalk, steaming Detroit up from -135 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Tigers are receiving 85% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Detroit is taking in 92% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the road chalk.
Favorites with a winning record off a win who made the playoffs the previous season receiving at least 5-cents of line movement in their favor are 138-67 (67%) with a 5% ROI this season. When favored and receiving line movement in their direction, the Tigers are 39-20 (66%) with a 5% ROI, the 5th best “chalk with a line move” team in MLB.
The Tigers have the better bats, hitting .251 with 154 homers and 575 runs scored compared to the White Sox hitting .229 with 116 homers and 452 runs scored.
Detroit is hitting .246 against righties (16th in MLB) while Chicago is hitting .225 (30th).
Peguero is expected to be the opener, which means the White Sox will be throwing a bullpen game.
The Tigers are 29-27 on the road. The White Sox are 25-34 at home.
The Tigers are 5-2 against the White Sox this season.
9:45 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants (-130, 7)
The Padres (66-52) just took two of three against the Red Sox, winning yesterday’s series finale 6-2 as -150 home favorites. Conversely, the Giants (59-59) just lost two of three against the Nationals, falling 8-0 yesterday as -160 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Padres send out righty Yu Darvish (1-3, 6.51 ERA) and the Giants turn to fellow righty Logan Webb (10-8, 3.24 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -140 home favorite and San Diego a +120 road dog.
The public is largely split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this roughly even moneyline ticket count at DraftKings, we’ve seen the Giants fall from -140 to -130.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the line move we can infer that pro money has sided with the Padres (+120 to +110).
At DraftKings, San Diego is receiving 51% of moneyline bets and 62% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Padres are taking in 69% of moneyline bets and a whopping 96% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the road team, especially out in Vegas.
Monday dogs off a win with a line move in their favor, like the Padres here, are 22-15 (60%) with a 28% ROI this season.
San Diego has betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting plus money.
The Padres are 40-27 (60%) with a 5% ROI against teams .500 or below.
San Diego is 27-26 (51%) with a 14% ROI as a dog, the 7th most profitable dog in MLB.
The Padres are 4-2 against the Giants this season.
San Francisco is 7-14 since the All-Star Break and 18-28 since trading for Rafael Devers.
