Today a new week begins with a 13 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (-115, 7.5) at Miami Marlins
The Braves (59-71) just lost two of three against the Mets but avoided the sweep, winning the series finale 4-3 as +120 home dogs. Similarly, the Marlins (61-69) just dropped two of three against the Blue Jays but avoided the sweep, winning the series finale 5-3 as +110 home dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Braves tap righty Spencer Strider (5-11, 5.24 ERA) and the Marlins go with fellow righty Edward Cabrera (6-7, 3.52 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -125 road favorite and Miami a +105 home dog.
The public is leaning toward laying the short chalk with the Braves. However, despite receiving 56% of moneyline bets at DraftKings, we’ve seen Atlanta fall from -125 to -115. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Marlins, as the line has moved in their direction (+105 to -105) despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, the Marlins are receiving 44% of moneyline bets but 54% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in their favor.
Miami has betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and leading to more upsets.
Cabrera is 4-3 with a 3.21 ERA at home this season.
Meanwhile, Strider has posted a 15.43 ERA in three August starts, allowing 20 earned runs in 11.2 innings pitched. Atlanta is 5-12 in his 17 starts this season. He is 2-5 with a 5.75 ERA on the road.
The Marlins are hitting .260 against righties (4th in MLB). The Braves are hitting .247 (18th).
7:07 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays (-145, 7.5)
The Twins (59-71) just dropped two of three against the White Sox, losing the series finale 8-0 as -120 road favorites. On the other hand, the Blue Jays (76-55) just took two of three against the Marlins but failed to complete the sweep, losing the series finale 5-3 as -130 road favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Twins send out righty Joe Ryan (12-6, 2.96 ERA) and the Blue Jays go with fellow righty Max Scherzer (4-2, 3.60 ERA).
This line opened with Toronto listed as a -130 home favorite and Minnesota a +115 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down on the Blue Jays to earn a series-opening win, steaming Toronto up from -130 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Blue Jays are receiving 82% of moneyline bets and 91% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Toronto is taking in 75% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk.
Toronto has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs more likely to come from the “better” team expected to win.
The Blue Jays have additional betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity also benefiting the team expected to win.
Toronto has the edge at the plate, hitting .266 with 640 runs scored compared to Minnesota hitting .237 with 537 runs scored.
The Blue Jays are hitting .265 against righties this season (1st in MLB). Meanwhile, the Twins are hitting .240 (23rd).
Scherzer has posted a 1.80 ERA in four August starts, giving up 5 earned runs in 25 innings pitched. Meanwhile, Ryan has posted a 3.74 ERA in four August starts, allowing 9 earned runs in 21.1 innings pitched.
Toronto is 6-4 over their last ten games, hitting .234 with a 3.60 team ERA. On the other hand, the Twins are 2-8 over their last ten games, hitting .214 with a 5.14 team ERA.
The Blue Jays are 42-21 at home. The Twins are 26-40 on the road.
7:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-130, 8) at New York Mets
The Phillies (76-54) just took two of three against the Nationals, winning the series finale 3-2 as -265 home favorites. Similarly, the Mets (69-61) just took two of three against the Braves but failed to complete the sweep, dropping the series finale 4-3 as -140 road favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Phillies hand the ball to lefty Cristopher Sanchez (11-4, 2.46 ERA) and the Mets turn to righty Kodai Senga (7-5, 2.58 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -115 road favorite and New York a -105 home dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Phillies laying short chalk, steaming Philadelphia up from -115 to -130.
At DraftKings, the Phillies are receiving 65% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Philadelphia is taking in 82% of moneyline bets and 94% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the road team.
Philadelphia has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs more likely to come from the “better” team expected to win.
The Phillies have the better bats, hitting .257 with 617 runs scored compared to the Mets hitting .246 with 593 runs scored. The Phillies are hitting .261 against righties (2nd in MLB). The Mets are hitting .233 against lefties (19th).
Sanchez has a 2.05 ERA in four August starts, allowing 6 earned runs in 26.1 innings pitched. Philadelphia is 18-7 in Sanchez’s 25 starts this season.
Meanwhile, Senga has a 5.21 ERA in four August starts, giving up 11 earned runs in 19 innings pitched.
