Today a new week begins with a 11-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies (-165, 8)
The Astros (70-60) just split a four-game series agains the Orioles, winning Sunday’s series finale 6-3 as -105 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Phillies (76-54) just took two of three against the Royals, winning 11-3 yesterday as +115 road dogs. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Astros tap righty Ronel Blanco (9-6, 3.14 ERA) and the Phillies send out fellow righty Zack Wheeler (12-6, 2.73 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -145 home favorite and Houston a +125 road dog. Wiseguys have laid the chalk with the Phillies at home, steaming Philadelphia up from -145 to -165. The Phillies are receiving 79% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars, a heavy dose of both public and sharp support. Philadelphia has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Blanco has a 4.34 ERA in four August starts, allowing 9 earned runs in 18.2 innings pitched. Wheeler has a 1.73 ERA in four August starts, allowing 5 earned runs in 26 innings pitched. He has a 2.40 ERA at home compared to 3.11 on the road and a 2.42 ERA at night compared to 3.17 in the day. The Phillies are hitting .298 over their last ten games while the Astros are hitting .266.
7:40 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves at Minnesota Twins (-120, 8)
The Braves (70-60) just took two of three against the Nationals but failed to earn the sweep by losing Sunday’s series finale 5-1 as -195 home favorites. On the other hand, the Twins (72-58) just dropped two of three against the Cardinals, losing 3-2 yesterday as -145 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Braves start lefty Max Fried (7-7, 3.57 ERA) and the Twins turn to righty Bailey Ober (12-5, 3.54 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em with both sides listed around -110 odds. The public is leaning toward backing the Braves. However, despite 55% of moneyline bets taking Atlanta we’ve seen the line move further toward Minnesota -110 to -120. The Twins are receiving 45% of moneyline bets and 61% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Minnesota has the better bats, hitting .253 with 633 runs scored while Atlanta is hitting .241 with 553 runs scored. Fried has a 6.10 ERA in four August starts, allowing 14 earned runs in 20.2 innings pitched. The Braves are 1-6 in his last seven starts. Ober has a 2.52 ERA in four August starts, allowing 7 earned runs in 25 innings pitched. The Twins are 5-1 in his last six starts. Minnesota is hitting .264 against lefties this season, 3rd best in MLB.
8:10 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (-150, 9) at Chicago White Sox
The Tigers (65-66) have taken the first three games of this four-game series, winning the opener 5-2 as -160 road favorites, taking the second game 13-4 as -240 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 9-4 as -150 road favorites. In tonight’s series finale, the Tigers hand the ball to righty Ty Madden, who is making his MLB debut, and the White Sox (31-100) counter with fellow righty Davis Martin (0-2, 3.22 ERA). This line opened with Detroit listed as a -135 road favorite and Chicago a +125 home dog. Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the chalk with Detroit to complete the sweep, steaming the Tigers up from -135 to -150. Detroit is receiving 86% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy Pro and Joe support in addition to 15-cent steam move in their favor. Detroit has the edge offensively, hitting .234 with 134 homers and 556 runs scored compared to Chicago hitting .221 with 107 homers and 408 runs scored. The Tigers are 8-1 against the White Sox this season. Chicago is just 18-47 at home, the worst home record in MLB. The Tigers are 7-3 over their last ten games, hitting .254 with a 3.03 ERA. The White Sox are 2-8 over their last ten games, hitting .240 with a 6.07 ERA. Chicago is 0-5 in Davis’s five starts this season.
