Today a new week begins with a loaded 13 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers (-180, 8.5)
The Twins (52-59) just dropped two of three against the Guardians but avoided the sweep by winning yesterday’s series finale 5-4 as +140 road dogs. Similarly, the Tigers (65-48) just lost two of three against the Phillies, losing 2-0 yesterday as +150 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Twins have yet to announce their starting pitcher, although there is speculation that Minnesota might start rookie righty Travis Adams (1-1, 8.03 ERA) to make his 5th career start. On the other hand, the Tigers send out righty Casey Mize (9-4, 3.43 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -160 home favorite and Minnesota a +135 road dog.
Pros are fading the Twins, hammering the Tigers on the “action” line and and steaming up Detroit from -160 to -180.
At DraftKings, the Tigers are receiving 88% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Tigers are taking in over 95% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing a heavy Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Monday home teams with a line move in their favor are 56-36 (61%) with a 4% ROI this season. Home favorites in the opening game of a new series receiving a big steam move of 20-cents or more in their direction are 54-26 (71%) with a 9% ROI.
The Tigers are 18-7 (72%) with a 6% ROI as a home favorite -150 or more. Detroit is 17-5 (77%) with an 18% ROI as a home favorite against sub .500 teams.
Detroit has the more explosive bats, hitting .249 with 144 homers and 543 runs scored compared to Minnesota hitting .241 with 126 homers and 462 runs.
The Tigers are hitting .257 at home (10th best in MLB). The Twins are hitting .232 on the road (25th).
Mize is 5-1 with a 3.32 ERA at home this season.
Detroit is 36-21 at home. Minnesota is 22-35 on the road.
6:40 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Miami Marlins (-130, 8.5)
The Astros (62-50) just got swept by the Red Sox, losing 6-1 yesterday as -130 road favorites. On the other hand, the Marlins (55-55) just swept the Yankees, winning 7-3 yesterday as -105 home dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Astros send out righty Jason Alexander (1-1, 7.36 ERA) and the Marlins counter with fellow righty Sandy Alcantara (6-9, 6.36 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
The public doesn’t know who to take, with moneyline bets at DraftKings split roughly right down the middle 50/50. However, despite this split ticket count we’ve seen the Marlins jump up from -110 to -130.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price one way or the other. So, based on the 20-cent line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper and more respected wagers are backing the red-hot Marlins, who have won five straight and are now 11-4 since the All-Star Break.
Monday home teams with a line move in their favor are 56-36 (61%) with a 4% ROI this season. Home favorites in the opening game of a new series receiving a big steam move of 20-cents or more in their direction are 54-26 (71%) with a 9% ROI.
Sweet spot home favorites -125 to -140 playing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season are 59-35 (63%) with a 10% ROI.
The Marlins have betting system value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Miami is 3-0 in Alcantara’s last three straights. He hasn’t given up a run in his past two starts, spanning 12 innings.
The Marlins are 8-2 over their last ten games with a 2.96 team ERA. Meanwhile, the Astros are 2-8 over their last ten games with a 4.91 team ERA.
Miami has been the most profitable team in MLB since June 1st, going 32-22 (69%) with a 34% ROI and +18 units won.
7:15 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (-145, 8) at Atlanta Braves
The Brewers (67-44) just swept the Nationals, cruising 14-3 yesterday as -150 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Braves (47-63) just took two of three against the Reds, winning 4-2 yesterday at Bristol Motor Speedway.
In tonight’s series opener, the Brewers send out righty Quinn Priester (10-2, 3.27 ERA) and the Braves counter with fellow righty Erick Fedde (3-11, 5.33 ERA).
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -130 road favorite and Atlanta a +110 home dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Brewers laying short chalk, steaming Milwaukee up from -130 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Brewers are taking in 78% of moneyline bets and 91% of moneyline dollars, indicating both public and sharp support in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy.
Favorites off a win with a winning record receiving at least 5-cents of line movement in their direction against a team who made the playoffs the previous season are 132-60 (69%) with a 7% ROI this season.
Milwaukee has cleaned up against losing teams, going 38-21 (64%) with a 14% ROI against sub .500 teams.
The Brewers have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Milwaukee has the more productive offense, hitting .257 with 555 runs scored compared to Atlanta hitting .243 with only 461 runs scored.
The Brewers are 11-0 in Priester’s last 11 starts. He has given up 2 earned runs or less in 10 of his last 12 starts.
Meanwhile, Fedde posted a 10.54 ERA in four July starts. He is making his 2nd start with the Braves after being acquired in a trade. In his Atlanta debut, Fedde allowed 4 earned runs in 4.2 innings pitched, losing to the Royals 9-6.
