Today a new week begins with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins (-145, 8.5)
The Padres (54-45) just took two of three against the Nationals, dominating yesterday’s series finale 8-1 as -125 road favorites. Similarly, the Marlins (46-52) just took two of three against the Royals but failed to complete the sweep, losing 7-4 yesterday as +100 home dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Padres hand the ball to righty Randy Vasquez (3-4, 3.80 ERA) and the Marlins start fellow righty Eury Perez (3-2, 3.18 ERA).
This line opened with Miami listed as a -130 home favorite and San Diego a +110 road dog.
The public is surprised the Padres are a dog despite having the better won-loss record and 55% of moneyline bets at DraftKings are backing San Diego.
However, despite the Padres receiving a majority of tickets, we’ve actually seen this line move further toward the Marlins -130 to -145. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Miami, with pros backing the Marlins and moving the line in their favor despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, the Marlins are taking in 45% of moneyline bets but 59% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Miami is receiving 47% of moneyline bets but 69% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Miami has fishy buy-low betting system value as an unpopular favorite with a losing record against a sell-high popular dog with a winning record.
The Marlins have the better offense, hitting .253 with 90 homers and 423 runs scored compared to the Padres hitting .247 with 86 homers and 400 runs scored.
Perez has a 0.50 ERA in three July starts, allowing only 1 earned run in 18 innings pitched. Miami is 5-1 in his last six starts.
Meanwhile, Vasquez is 2-3 with a 4.57 ERA on the road this season.
8:05 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs (-155, 7.5)
The Royals (48-52) just dropped two of three against the Marlins but avoided the sweep, winning yesterday’s series finale 7-4 as -120 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Cubs (59-40) just took two of three against the Red Sox but failed to complete the sweep, losing 6-1 yesterday as +115 home dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Royals send out righty Noah Cameron (3-4, 2.31 ERA) and the Cubs go with righty opener Ryan Brasier (0-0, 1.04 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -135 home favorite and Kansas City a +115 road dog.
Sharps have laid the chalk with the Cubs at Wrigley, driving Chicago up from -135 to -155.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are taking in over 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating lopsided support from both wiseguys and the betting public.
Chicago has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Cubs have a big edge at the plate, hitting .256 with 148 homers and 523 runs scored compared to the Royals hitting .244 with only 77 homers and 343 runs scored.
Chicago is hitting .257 against righties (5th best in MLB) while Kansas City is hitting just .243 (23rd).
The Cubs are 32-17 at home while the Royals are 24-26 on the road.
Chicago is 29-10 (74%) off a loss, the best “bounce back” team in MLB.
8:40 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (-155, 11.5) at Colorado Rockies
The Cardinals (51-49) just got swept by the Diamondbacks, losing yesterday’s series finale 5-3 as +120 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Rockies (24-75) just took two of three against the Twins but failed to complete the sweep, falling 7-1 yesterday as +205 home dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Cardinals tap righty Michael McGreevy (1-1, 4.22 ERA) and the Rockies turn to lefty Austin Gomber (0-3, 5.65 ERA).
This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -135 road favorite and Colorado a +115 home dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Cardinals to get back on track, steaming St. Louis up from -135 to -155.
At DraftKings, the Cardinals are taking in 82% of moneyline bets and 91% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, St. Louis is taking in 79% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp, one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the road chalk.
St. Louis has betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Cardinals have the better bats, hitting .251 with 451 runs scored compared to the Rockies hitting .233 with 353 runs scored.
McGreevy has a 1.80 ERA on the road compared to 4.96 at home and a 3.52 ERA at night compared to 6.00 in the day.
Meanwhile, Gomber has a 7.36 ERA at home compared to 3.86 on the road and a 9.42 ERA at night compared to 1.88 in the day.
Colorado is 12-37 at home, by far the worst home team in MLB.
