Today we kick off a new week with a smaller than usual 10 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (-125, 8.5) at Detroit Tigers
The Rays (49-41) just dropped two of three against the Twins but avoided the sweep with a 7-5 win in extra innings yesterday, cashing as +110 road dogs. On the other hand, the Tigers (57-34) just swept the Guardians, winning 7-2 in extra innings yesterday as -225 road favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Rays send out righty Shane Baz (8-3, 4.33 ERA) and the Tigers turn to fellow righty Keider Montero (3-1, 4.02 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -130 road favorite and Detroit a +110 home dog.
Initially, the Tigers’ starting pitcher was undecided. Once Montero was announced, we saw the line fall away from the Rays (-130 to -125) and toward the Tigers (+110 to +105). This signals smart money scooping up the Tigers as a rare plus money dog at home.
At DraftKings, the Tigers are taking in 62% of moneyline bets and 74% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split indicating modest public support but also respected wiseguy action on Detroit.
When both teams are coming off a win, as is the case here, the home dog is 20-12 (63%) with a 28% ROI. Monday home teams with a line move in their direction are 45-25 (64%) with a 10% ROI. Monday dogs off a win with a line move in their favor are 16-8 (67%) with a 42% ROI. The Tigers are 37-19 (66%) with a 12% ROI against teams who missed the playoffs the previous season.
The Tigers have correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (8.5), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities.
Detroit has the more explosive bats, hitting 116 homers and scoring 456 runs compared to Tampa Bay hitting 101 homers and scoring 431 runs.
The Tigers are 7-3 over their last ten games, sporting a 3.13 team ERA. The Rays are 4-6 over their last ten games with a team ERA of 5.63.
Montero is 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA at home. He posted a 3.10 ERA in four June starts, allowing 7 earned runs in 20.1 innings pitched.
Detroit is 30-14 at home this season, tied for the 3rd best home record in MLB.
9:38 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (-135, 7.5) at Los Angeles Angels
The Rangers (44-46) just dropped two of three against the Padres, falling 4-1 yesterday as +110 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Angels (43-46) just got swept by the Blue Jays, losing 3-2 yesterday as +155 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Rangers tap righty Jacob deGrom (9-2, 2.13 ERA) and the Angels start lefty Yusei Kikuchi (3-6, 2.81 ERA).
This line opened with Texas listed as a -145 road favorite and Los Angeles a +125 home dog.
The public is hammering the Rangers with deGrom on the bump. However, despite receiving 75% of moneyline bets at DraftKings we’ve seen the Rangers fall from -145 to -135. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line and hand out a better price to the public when they’re already backing Texas to begin with?
Because respected sharp action has sided with the Angels at home, moving the line in Los Angeles’s favor (+125 to +115) despite being the unpopular side.
Monday home teams with a line move in their direction are 45-25 (64%) with a 10% ROI. The Angels are 32-38 (46%) with an 11% ROI as a dog, the 4th most profitable dog team in MLB.
Los Angeles has value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting plus money.
The Angels have the more explosive bats, hitting 129 homers and scoring 379 runs compared to the Rangers hitting 90 homers and scoring 340 runs.
Kikuchi is 3-1 with a 1.12 ERA at home this season. Texas is hitting .216 against lefties, ranking 29th in MLB.
The Angels are 20-20 at home. The Rangers are 18-27 on the road, the 6th worst road record in MLB.
9:45 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-135, 7.5) at San Francisco Giants
The Phillies (53-37) just took two of three against the Reds, winning 3-1 yesterday as -235 home favorites. Similarly, the Giants (49-42) just took two of three against the Athletics, winning 6-2 yesterday as +105 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Phillies hand the ball to lefty Cristopher Sanchez (7-2, 2.68 ERA) and the Giants counter with righty Landen Roupp (6-5, 3.48 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -145 road favorite and San Francisco a +130 home dog.
The public is rushing to the window to lay the modest chalk with Philadelphia. However, despite receiving 71% of moneyline bets at DraftKings we’ve seen the Phillies move from -145 to -135. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Giants, as the line has moved in their favor (+130 to +115) despite being the unpopular side.
At Circa, the Giants are receiving 71% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of the more respected wagers out in Vegas backing the home dog.
When both teams are coming off a win, as is the case here, the home dog is 20-12 (63%) with a 28% ROI. Monday home teams with a line move in their direction are 45-25 (64%) with a 10% ROI. Monday dogs off a win with a line move in their favor are 16-8 (67%) with a 42% ROI.
Roupp is 2-1 with a 1.85 ERA at home this season. The Giants are 4-1 in his last five starts.
The Giants have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 2.96 (best in MLB) compared to 4.32 for the Phillies (8th worst).
San Francisco is 25-17 at home, including 4-2 (67%) with a 36% ROI as a home dog.
