Today we kick off a new week with a smaller than usual 12-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Top MLB Resources:
6:40 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (-175, 8.5) at Miami Marlins
The Cubs (28-19) just swept the White Sox at Wrigley, winning 6-2 yesterday as -250 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Marlins (18-27) just took two of three against the Rays, winning 5-1 yesterday as +145 home dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Cubs hand the ball to righty Ben Brown (3-3, 4.75 ERA) and the Marlins turn to fellow righty Edwin Cabrera (0-1, 5.52 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -165 road favorite and Miami a +150 home dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the pricey chalk and have gotten down hard on the Cubs, steaming Chicago up from -165 to -175.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are taking in 85% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Cubs are receiving more than 95% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing heavy one-way Pro and Joe support in favor of the road chalk.
When both teams are coming off a win, as is the case here, the favorite is 32-19 (63%) with a 3% ROI this season. Sweet spot bigger favorites -170 or more with a line move in their favor are 107-42 (72%) with a 4% ROI this season.
The Cubs are 19-9 (68%) with a 10% ROI as a favorite this season, including 6-2 (75%) as a road favorite.
Chicago has additional betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Cubs have the more explosive offense, hitting 65 homers and scoring 270 runs compared to the Marlins hitting 42 homers and scoring 187 runs.
Brown has a 2.76 ERA in three May starts, giving up 5 earned runs in 16.1 innings pitched. He has a 1.59 ERA on the road compared to 6.39 at home.
9:45 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at San Francisco Giants (-130, 7.5)
The Royals (26-22) just dropped two of three against the Cardinals but avoided the sweep with a 2-1 win yesterday, cashing as +100 home dogs. Conversely, the Giants (28-19) just swept the Athletics, winning 3-2 yesterday as -150 home favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Royals start lefty Kris Bubic (4-2, 1.66 ERA) and the Giants go with fellow southpaw Robbie Ray (6-0, 3.04 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -120 home favorite and Kansas City a +100 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Giants laying short chalk at home, steaming San Francisco up from -120 to -130.
At DraftKings, the Giants are receiving roughly 65% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating one-way Pro and Joe support in their favor.
Home favorites off a win with a winning record are 111-56 (67%) with a 5% ROI this season. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more in their direction are 81-39 (68%) with a 7% ROI.
Monday home favorites with a line move in their direction are 24-8 (75%) with an 18% ROI. Home favorites in the opening game of a new series are 91-46 (66%) with a 7% ROI.
The Giants are 15-5 (75%) with a 21% ROI as a home favorite this season.
The Giants have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Giants are 16-7 at home. The Royals are 9-13 on the road.
10:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Athletics (-140, 9.5)
The Angels (20-25) just swept the Dodgers, winning 6-4 yesterday as +200 road dogs. On the other hand, the Athletics (22-25) just got swept by the Giants, falling 3-2 yesterday as +135 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Angels send out righty Jose Soriano (2-4, 3.46 ERA) and the Athletics rebuttal with fellow righty J.T. Ginn (1-1, 4.61 ERA).
This line opened with the Athletics listed as a -120 home favorite and the Angels a +100 road dog.
At DraftKings, the public is largely split down the middle and don’t know who to take. However, despite this even bet split we’ve seen the Athletics jump up from -120 to -130.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the line move we can infer that pro money has sided with the home chalk.
At Circa, the Athletics are receiving 82% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy and further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers playing the Athletics out in Vegas.
When both teams are below .500, as is the case here, the favorite is 53-25 (68%) with a 10% ROI this season. Monday home favorites with a line move in their direction are 24-8 (75%) with an 18% ROI. Home favorites in the opening game of a new series are 91-46 (66%) with a 7% ROI.
The Athletics have notable buy-low value as a team who just got swept against a sell-high team that just swept their opponent.
The Athletics are hitting .246 against righties (14th) while the Angels are hitting .224 (27th).
The Athletics are hitting .260 at home (8th) while the Angels are hitting .220 (26th) on the road.
