Today we have a loaded MLB Memorial Day slate on tap with 12-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:10 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks (-185, 9)
The Pirates (19-35) just split a four-game series against the Brewers but lost yesterday’s series finale 6-5 as +135 home dogs. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks (26-27) have dropped five straight and just got swept by the Cardinals, losing 4-3 yesterday as +110 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Pirates hand the ball to lefty Andrew Heaney (3-3, 2.91 ERA) and the Diamondbacks turn to righty Ryne Nelson (1-1, 4.60 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -175 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +155 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the pricey chalk and have laid the wood with the Diamondbacks to get back on track, steaming Arizona up from -175 to -185.
At DraftKings, Arizona is receiving 84% of moneyline bets and 86% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Arizona is taking in 50% of moneyline bets 58% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp discrepancy in favor of the Snakes at home.
When both teams are below .500, as is the case here, the home favorite is 58-31 (65%) with a 6% ROI this season. Monday home favorites with line movement in their direction are 26-12 (68%) with a 9% ROI. Home favorites in the opener of a new series are 96-54 (65%) with a 4% ROI.
The Diamondbacks have the more explosive bats, hitting .255 with 73 homers and 267 runs scored compared to Pittsburgh only hitting .224 with 37 homers and 164 runs scored.
Arizona is hitting .263 at home (7th best in MLB) while the Pirates are only hitting .206 on the road (29th).
The Diamondbacks are also hitting .250 against lefties (9th) while the Pirates are only hitting .226 against righties (29th).
Pittsburgh is 6-19 on the road, the third worst road record in MLB.
8:40 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres (-150, 7.5)
The Marlins (21-30) just took two of three against the Angels, winning 3-0 yesterday as -105 road dogs. Similarly, the Padres (29-22) just took two of three against the Braves, winning 5-3 yesterday as +130 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Marlins send out lefty Ryan Weathers (1-0, 1.80 ERA) and the Padres go with righty Randy Vasquez (3-4, 3.49 ERA).
This line opened with San Diego listed as a -135 home favorite and Miami a +120 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Padres laying modest home chalk, steaming San Diego up from -135 to -150.
At DraftKings, the Padres are receiving 85% of moneyline bets and 89% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Padres are taking in only 44% of moneyline bets but 66% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Padres at home.
Home favorites off a win with a winning record, like the Padres here, are 119-62 (66%) with a 5% ROI this season. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 163-84 (66%) with a 6% ROI. Monday home favorites with line movement in their direction are 26-12 (68%) with a 9% ROI. Monday home favorites off a win are 20-10 (67%) with a 10% ROI. Home favorites in the opener of a new series are 96-54 (65%) with a 4% ROI. Sweet spot non-division favorites -135 to -160 are 94-57 (62%) with a 5% ROI.
San Diego has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Padres have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.48 compared to 4.91 for the Marlins.
Vasquez has a 2.49 ERA in four May starts, allowing only 6 earned runs in 21.2 innings pitched. He has a 2.08 ERA at home compared to 4.61 on the road.
The Padres are 16-8 at home. The Marlins are 8-15 on the road.
9:38 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-170, 9.5) at Los Angeles Angels
The Yankees (32-20) just took two of three against the Rockies, winning 5-4 yesterday as -295 road favorites. On the other hand, the Angels (25-27) just dropped two of three against the Marlins, falling 3-0 yesterday as -115 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Yankees start lefty Ryan Yarbrough (1-0, 3.38 ERA) and the Angels turn to righty Jack Kochanowicz (3-5, 5.03 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -160 road favorite and Los Angeles a +145 home dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Yankees on the road, driving New York up from -160 to -170.
At DraftKings, the Yankees are receiving 87% of moneyline bets and 91% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Yankees are taking in 75% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing heavy one-way “low bets, higher dollars” support in favor of the road chalk.
Favorites with line movement in their direction who made the playoffs the previous season are 174-95 (65%) with a 3% ROI this season.
The Yankees are 31-15 (67%) with a 9% ROI as a favorite this season, the second best chalk team in MLB. New York is 19-6 (76%) with 17% ROI as a favorite -150 or more.
New York has additional betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Yankees have the better bats, hitting .263 with 86 homers and 296 runs scored compared to the Angels hitting only .226 with 77 homers and 221 runs scored.
Yarbrough has a 2.57 ERA in three May starts, allowing only 4 earned runs in 14 innings pitched. He has a 2.81 ERA on the road compared to 4.05 at home. Meanwhile, Kochanowicz has a 4.64 ERA in four May starts, giving up 11 earned runs in 21.1 innings pitched.
New York has the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.29 (6th best in MLB) compared to 6.45 for the Angels (dead last).
New York is 14-11 on the road. Los Angeles is 10-12 at home.
