Today we kick off the weekend with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:20 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs (-145, 6.5)
The Pirates (8-5) stole yesterday’s series opener 2-0, coming through as +130 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s rematch, the Pirates hand the ball to righty Braxton Ashcraft (1-1, 2.25 ERA) and the Cubs (6-7) tap fellow righty Edward Cabrera (1-0, 0.00 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -135 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +115 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Cubs to bounce back at Wrigley, steaming Chicago up from -135 to -145.
At Circa, Chicago is only receiving 33% of moneyline bets but a whopping 83% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Saturday home favorites, like the Cubs here, are 14-8 (64%) with a 6% ROI this season.
The Cubs have correlative betting value as a favorite in a super low total game (6.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
3:07 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays (-120, 8)
The Blue Jays (6-7) took last night’s series opener 10-4, cruising as -160 home favorites.
In this late afternoon rematch, the Twins (7-7) send out righty Joe Ryan (1-1, 4.40 ERA) and the Blue Jays counter with lefty Eric Lauer (1-1, 4.91 ERA).
This line opened with Minnesota listed as a short -115 road favorite and Toronto a -105 home dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Blue Jays, flipping Toronto from a -105 home dog to a -120 home favorite. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement on the Blue Jays at home.
At DraftKings, Toronto is taking in 64% of moneyline bets and 68% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Blue Jays are receiving 63% of moenyline bets and 67% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the Jays at home.
Non-division home favorites off a win priced -150 or less, like Toronto here, are 10-7 (59%) with a 5% ROI this season and 113-73 (61%) with an 8% ROI since 2025. Saturday home favorites are 14-8 (64%) with a 6% ROI this season.
The Blue Jays have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Toronto is 6-4 at home this season. Minnesota is 2-5 on the road.
7:10 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers (-180, 8)
The Nationals (5-8) took yesterday’s series opener 7-3, cashing as hefty +165 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Nationals tap lefty Foster Griffin (1-0, 2.70 ERA) and the Brewers (8-5) go with fellow southpaw Kyle Harrison (1-0, 2.61 ERA).
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -165 home favorite and Washington a +150 road dog.
Sharps are expecting the Brew Crew to get back on track, steaming Milwaukee up from -165 to -180.
At Circa, Milwaukee is receiving 75% of moneyline bets and a whopping 91% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk from the wiseguys in the desert.
Saturday home favorites are 14-8 (64%) with a 6% ROI this season. If priced -170 or more, they improve to 6-2 (75%) with an 11% ROI this season.
Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season and lost Game 1 of a new series but are receiving line move in their favor in Game 2, like the Brewers here, are 32-17 (65%) with a 4% ROI since 2025.
The Brewers have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
