Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:15 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-165, 8) at St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals (6-7) won last night’s series opener 2-0, cashing as +100 home dogs. In this afternoon’s rematch, the Phillies (8-5) go with lefty Cristopher Sanchez (0-0, 4.09 ERA) and the Cardinals rebuttal with righty Miles Mikolas (0-1, 11.25 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -140 road favorite and St. Louis a +125 home dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Phillies to bounce back with a win, steaming Philadelphia up from -140 to -165.
At DraftKings, the Phillies are receiving 85% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Phillies are taking in 89% of moneyline bets and 97% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a heavy one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the road chalk.
Favorites off a loss are 50-29 (63%) with an 8% ROI this season. Saturday favorites with a winning record are 8-3 (73%) this season and 163-109 (60%) with a 2% ROI since 2024.
Philadelphia has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win. The Phillies have the better bullpen as well (team ERA 4.10 vs 4.76).
Wiseguys have also leaned under, as the total is 8 with the under juiced to -115 or -120 across the market. Some shops have even dipped down to 7.5. This downward movement is notable because the public is playing the over (64% of bets at DraftKings), yet the total has shown under liability.
6:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians (-135, 7.5)
The Guardians (7-6) took last night’s series opener 7-0, cruising as -130 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Royals (7-7) hand the ball to righty Michael Lorenzen (1-1, 3.18 ERA) and the Guardians turn to fellow righty Luis Ortiz (0-2, 8.44 ERA).
This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -115 home favorite and Kansas City a +105 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Guardians laying short chalk at home, steaming Cleveland up from -115 to -135.
At Circa, the Guardians are receiving 50% of moneyline bets but a whopping 81% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in their favor.
Home favorites are 89-46 (66%) with a 10% ROI this season. Home favorites off a win playing an opponent off a loss are 43-24 (64%) with a 6% ROI. Saturday favorites with a winning record are 8-3 (73%) this season and 163-109 (60%) with a 2% ROI since 2024.
The Guardians have the more explosive bats, hitting .221 with 17 homers and 51 runs scored compared to the Royals hitting .218 with 6 homers and 45 runs scored. Kansas City is only hitting .199 on the road this season (22nd in MLB) and .208 against righties (25th). The Guardians have the better bullpen as well (2.17 ERA vs 3.51 ERA).
Cleveland has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
7:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros (-150, 9)
The Astros (6-7) won last night’s series opener 14-3, taking care of business as -140 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Angels (8-5) send out lefty Tyler Anderson (0-0, 4.50 ERA) and the Astros go with righty Ryan Gusto (1-0, 1.13 ERA).
This line opened with Houston listed as a -140 home favorite and Los Angeles a +125 road dog.
Wiseguys are going back to the Astros well, steaming Houston up from -140 to -150.
At DraftKings, the Astros are receiving 77% of moneyline bets and 83% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Astros are taking in 67% of moneyline bets and 71% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of Houston at home.
Home favorites are 89-46 (66%) with a 10% ROI this season. Home favorites off a win playing an opponent off a loss are 43-24 (64%) with a 6% ROI. Saturday “sweet spot” home favorites between -150 and -200 are 49-27 (65%) with a 3% ROI since 2024.
The Astros have a big edge in the bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.65 compared to 6.75 for the Angels (dead last in MLB).
Sharps have also leaned over, raising the total from 8.5 to 9 across the market. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 49% of bets but a hefty 76% of dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers banking on another higher scoring game.
