Today the weekend begins with a loaded 16-game MLB slate to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
Top MLB Resources:
2:15 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (-135, 8.5)
The Brewers (12-6) took Friday night’s series opener 2-1, taking care of business as -125 road favorites. In this afternoon’s rematch, the Brewers start lefty DL Hall (0-1, 7.11 ERA) and the Cardinals (9-11) counter with righty Miles Mikolas (1-2, 5.82 ERA). This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -125 home favorite and Milwaukee a +105 road dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know which side to take. However, despite this even bet split we’ve seen St. Louis creep up from -125 to -135. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even. So we know, based on this ten cent line move, that the bigger, sharper wagers are laying the chalk with the Cardinals. Favorites off a loss, like St. Louis here, are 78-45 (63%) this season with an 8% ROI. Saturday favorites are 30-17 (64%) this season with a 12% ROI. Sharps also hit the over, raising the total from 8 to 8.5. The over is receiving 51% of bets but 76% of money, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The forecast calls for high 50s with cloudy skies and 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to right center at Busch Stadium. The Brewers are 12-6 to the over, the second best over team in MLB.
6:10 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians (-175, 7.5)
The Guardians (14-6) rolled to a 10-2 win in last night’s series opener, easily cashing as -160 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Athletics (8-12) start lefty Alex Wood (0-1, 8.10 ERA) and the Guardians go with fellow southpaw Logan Allen (2-0, 5.06 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -155 home favorite and Oakland a +140 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared of the chalk and have gotten down hard on the Guardians, steaming Cleveland up from -155 to -175. The Guardians are receiving roughly 90% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating one-sided support from both wiseguys and the betting public. Cleveland has the better bats, hitting .252 and scoring 112 runs vs Oakland hitting .208 and scoring just 58 runs. The Guardians also have the better pitching staff (team ERA 3.08 vs 3.95). Cleveland has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team. The Guardians also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Cleveland is +45 in run differential, tied for the best in MLB with Kansas City. Oakland is -30.
8:40 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (-115, 7.5) at San Diego Padres
The Blue Jays (11-9) won last night’s Interleague series opener 5-1, cashing as -110 road favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Blue Jays start righty Jose Berrios (3-0, 1.05 ERA) and the Padres (11-11) send out fellow righty Randy Vasquez, who is making his 2024 debut after going 2-2 with a 2.87 ERA in 2023. Through three starts in AAA El Paso, Vasquez has a 7.94 ERA in 11.1 innings. This line opened with San Diego listed as a -115 home favorite and Toronto a -105 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Jays to post another win, flipping Toronto to a -115 favorite. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement on the Blue Jays. Toronto is receiving roughly 65% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating modest public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a 20-cent steam move. Interleague favorites off a win are 23-13 (64%) this season and 246-149 (62%) since the start of last season. Road favorites are 63-32 (66%) this season with a 17% ROI. Short favorites -130 or less are 73-55 (57%) this season with a 6% ROI. Pros also hit the under as soon as it opened, dropping the total from 8.5 to 7.5. The forecast calls for mid 60s with 5-10 MPH winds blowing in from left at Petco Park.
