Today the weekend begins with a loaded 17-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:10 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers (-140, 8.5)
This is Game 1 of a doubleheader after last night’s series opener got rained out.
The Orioles (10-14) hand the ball to righty Brandon Young (0-0, 6.75 ERA) and the Tigers (15-10) counter with fellow righty Casey Mize (3-1, 2.22 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -120 home favorite and Baltimore a +105 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Tigers laying short chalk at home, steaming Detroit up from -120 to -140.
At DraftKings, the Tigers are receiving 80% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Tigers are taking in 79% of moneyline bets and a whopping 95% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing heavy, one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe support in favor of the Tigers at home.
Home favorites, like the Tigers here, are 171-90 (66%) with an 8% ROI this season. Home favorites with a winning record are 86-39 (69%) with a 12% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 166-94 (64%) with a 5% ROI. Saturday favorites with a winning record are 19-7 (73%) with a 20% ROI.
The Tigers have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Detroit has the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 2.70 (5th best) compared to 4.48 for Baltimore (8th worst).
The Tigers are 10-3 at home this season. The Orioles are 5-8 on the road.
4:05 p.m. ET: New York Mets (-180, 9.5) at Washington Nationals
The Nationals (12-14) took last night’s series opener 5-4, cashing as juicy +155 home dogs.
In this late afternoon rematch, the Mets (18-8) send out righty Clay Holmes (2-1, 3.16 ERA) and the Nationals go with fellow righty Brad Lord (0-2, 4.73 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -170 road favorite and Washington a +155 home dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have laid the wood with the Mets in a bounce back spot, steaming New York up from -170 to -180.
At DraftKings, the Mets are receiving 86% of moneyline bets and a hefty 95% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Mets are taking in more than 95% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of New York.
Favorites off a loss, like the Mets here, are 104-56 (65%) with a 10% ROI this season. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 123-72 (63%) with a 3% ROI. Favorites -150 or more are 106-48 (69%) with a 5% ROI. Saturday favorites with a winning record are 19-7 (73%) with a 20% ROI. New York is 6-1 (86%) after a loss this season.
The Mets have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 2.56 (4th best) compared to 6.89 for the Nationals (dead last in MLB).
New York is 4-0 in Holmes’ four April starts. He has given up one earned run or less in three of those four starts. Meanwhile, Washington is 1-3 in Lord’s four April starts. He has a 4.38 ERA this month.
4:05 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at San Francisco Giants (-135, 8)
The Rangers (15-11) took last night’s Interleague series opener 2-0, cashing as +110 road dogs.
In this late afternoon rematch, the Rangers start righty Tyler Mahle (3-0, 0.68 ERA) and the Giants (17-10) trot out lefty Robbie Ray (3-0, 4.07 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -115 home favorite and Texas a -105 road dog.
Wiseguys have gotten down hard on the Giants to bounce back with a win, steaming San Francisco up from -115 to -135.
At Circa, the Giants are taking in 73% of moneyline bets and a massive 97% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy and further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers backing the G-Men out in the desert.
Favorites off a loss, like the Giants here, are 104-56 (65%) with a 10% ROI this season. Home favorites off a loss are 68-30 (69%) with a 17% ROI. Home favorites with a winning record are 86-39 (69%) with a 12% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 166-94 (64%) with a 5% ROI. Saturday favorites with a winning record are 19-7 (73%) with a 20% ROI. The Giants are 7-2 (78%) off a loss this season.
San Francisco has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Giants are 7-4 at home this season. The Rangers are 5-8 on the road.
