Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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3:07 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays (-160, 8.5)
The Blue Jays (72-51) won last night’s series opener 6-5, coming through as a -110 home pick’em.
In today’s rematch, the Rangers (61-62) hand the ball to lefty Patrick Corbin (6-8, 4.00 ERA) and the Blue Jays counter with fellow southpaw Eric Lauer (7-2, 2.82 ERA).
This line opened with Toronto listed as a -140 home favorite and Texas a +120 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Blue Jays laying modest chalk at home, steaming Toronto up from -140 to -160.
At DraftKings, the Blue Jays are receiving 80% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Toronto is taking in 72% of moneyline bets and 73% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a lopsided Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the home team.
The Blue Jays are 25-13 (66%) with a 12% ROI as a home favorite, the 4th best home favorite in MLB.
Toronto has betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Blue Jays have the better bats, hitting .268 with 141 homers and 597 runs scored compared to the Rangers hitting .231 with 128 homers and 500 runs scored.
Toronto is hitting .264 against lefties (3rd best in MLB). Texas is hitting .225 (26th).
Lauer has given up 2 earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts. He is 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA at home.
Meanwhile, Corbin has a 7.36 ERA in two August starts, allowing 6 earned runs in 7.1 innings pitched.
The Blue Jays are 41-20 at home. The Rangers are 24-36 on the road.
4:10 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox (-185, 9)
The Red Sox (67-56) won last night’s Interleague series opener 2-1, walking off in the bottom of the 9th as -165 home favorites.
In this late afternoon rematch, the Marlins (58-64) send out righty Cal Quantrill (4-9, 5.09 ERA) and the Red Sox go with fellow righty Brayan Bello (8-6, 3.25 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as a -170 home favorite and Miami a +150 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared of the pricey chalk and have laid the wood with Boston, steaming the Red Sox up from -170 to -185.
At Circa, Boston is taking in 89% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the wiseguy wagers out in Vegas backing the home chalk.
Interleague home favorites in which both teams missed the playoffs the previous season have gone 77-47 (62%) with a 3% ROI this season.
The Red Sox are 12-3 (80%) with a 27% ROI as a home favorite since July 1st, tied for the second best record in MLB.
Boston has the edge at the plate., hitting 149 homers and scoring 616 runs compared to Miami hitting 117 homers and scoring 526 runs.
Bello is 6-3 with a 3.09 ERA at home this season.
On the other hand, Quantrill has an 8.64 ERA in two August starts, allowing 8 earned runs in 8.1 innings pitched.
The Red Sox are 40-22 at home. The Marlins are 30-33 on the road.
9:05 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at San Francisco Giants (-120, 8)
The Rays (60-63) stole last night’s Interleague series opener 7-6, coming through as -105 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Rays start righty Adrian Houser (6-4, 2.84 ERA) and the Giants (59-63) go with fellow righty Justin Verlander (1-9, 4.53 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -130 home favorite and Tampa Bay a +110 road dog.
The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings, we’ve seen the line fall away from the Giants (-130 to -120) and toward the Rays (+110 to +100).
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the 10-cent move we can far infer that pro money has sided with the road dog Rays.
At DraftKings, Tampa Bay is taking in 50% of moneyline bets 87% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Rays are receiving 64% of moneyline bets and a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the road dog.
Short dogs +120 or less receiving line movement in their favor, like the Rays here, are 29-19 (60%) with a 24% ROI since August 1st.
The Giants are just 5-15 in Verlander’s 20 starts this season. He is 0-6 with a 4.66 ERA at home.
The Rays have the superior offense, hitting .251 with 137 homers and 553 runs scored compared to the Giants hitting .233 with 114 homers and 497 runs scored.
Tampa Bay is hitting .261 against righties (2nd best in MLB). The Giants are hitting .241 against righties (23rd).
San Francisco is 7-18 since the All-Star Break, the worst record in MLB.
