Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum, his new book out in August. >>Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up.
4:05 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers at Philadelphia Phillies (-115, 6.5)
The Phillies (62-47) came from behind to win last night’s Interleague series opener 5-4, cashing as -155 home favorites.
In this late afternoon rematch, the Tigers (64-47) send out lefty Tarik Skubal (10-3, 2.09 ERA) and the Phillies go with righty Zack Wheeler (9-4, 2.56 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em with both sides listed around -105 odds.
The public is leaning toward backing Skubal and the Tigers in a bounce-back spot. However, despite 59% of moneyline bets at DraftKings backing the Tigers, we’ve actually seen this line move further toward the Phillies -105 to -115. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on Philadelphia, as the line has been adjusted in their favor despite being the unpopular side.
At Circa, the Phillies are taking in 42% of moneyline bets but 60% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the Vegas smart money backing the home chalk.
Home favorites in the second game of a series after winning the first game are 126-70 (64%) with a 4% ROI this season. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous season are 102-59 (63%) with a 7% ROI.
The Phillies are 31-15 (67%) with a 6% ROI as a home favorite this season, including 22-6 (79%) with an 18% ROI as a home favorite with a line move in their direction.
Wheeler is 6-1 with a 2.00 ERA at home.
Philadelphia is hitting .253 against lefties this season, 7th best in MLB.
10:05 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at Athletics (-120, 10)
The Athletics (49-63) took last night’s Interleague series opener 5-1, cruising as -130 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Diamondbacks (51-59) tap righty Zac Gallen (7-12, 5.60 ERA) and the Athletics go with fellow righty J.T. Ginn (2-2, 3.89 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have faded the Diamondbacks, who are 1-9 in their last ten games and just sold off several key players at the deadline, steaming the Athletics up from -110 to -120.
At DraftKings, the Athletics are taking in 56% of moneyline bets and 73% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Athletics are receiving 73% of moneyline bets and 83% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Non-division home favorites off a win receiving line movement in their favor are 186-100 (65%) with a 5% ROI this season. Home favorites in the second game of a series after winning the first game are 126-70 (64%) with a 4% ROI.
When both teams are below .500, as is the case here, the home favorite off a win is 58-33 (64%) with a 4% ROI. When both teams missed the playoffs the previous season, the home favorite in an Interleague matchup is 74-40 (65%) with an 8% ROI.
Ginn posted a 2.25 ERA in five July appearances, allowing only 4 earned runs in 16 innings pitched.
On the other hand, Gallen posted a 5.10 ERA in five July starts, giving up 17 earned runs in 30 innings pitched.
The Athletics are 7-3 over their last ten games, hitting .275 with a 2.35 team ERA. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks are 1-9 over their last ten games, hitting .206 with a 4.81 team ERA.
10:10 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres (-145, 8.5)
The Padres (61-49) won last night’s series opener 4-1, taking care of business as -205 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Cardinals (55-56) hand the ball to righty Michael McGreevy (2-2, 4.91 ERA) and the Padres counter with fellow righty Randy Vasquez (3-4, 3.65 ERA).
This line opened with San Diego listed as a -130 home favorite and St. Louis a +110 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the red-hot Padres (who have won six straight), steaming San Diego up from -130 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Padres are receiving 85% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, San Diego is taking in 87% of moneyline bets and a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a lopsided “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Favorites off a win with a winning record receiving at least 5-cents of line movement in their favor who made the playoffs the previous season are 131-58 (69%) with an 8% ROI this season. Non-division home favorites off a win receiving line movement in their favor are 186-100 (65%) with a 5% ROI. Home favorites in the second game of a series after winning the first game are 126-70 (64%) with a 4% ROI.
The Padres are 27-13 (68%) with a 12% ROI as a home favorite, the 4th best home favorite in MLB.
Vasquez posted a 2.79 ERA in four July starts, allowing only 6 earned runs in 19.1 innings pitched. San Diego is 12-3 in his last 15 starts.
Meanwhile, McGreevy posted a 6.17 ERA in two July starts, giving up 8 earned runs in 11.2 innings pitched. He faced the Padres his last time out and allowed 7 earned runs in 4.2 innings pitched, losing 9-2.
San Diego is 35-18 at home. St. Louis is 23-32 on the road.
