Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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4:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (-160, 8) at San Francisco Giants
The Giants (52-43) won last night’s series opener 8-7, coming through as a -140 home favorite.
In this late afternoon rematch, the Dodgers (56-39) send out righty Shohei Ohtani (0-0, 1.50 ERA) and the Giants turn to fellow righty Landen Roupp (6-5, 3.39 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -140 road favorite and San Francisco a +120 home dog.
Sharps are banking on the Dodgers (who have lost seven straight games) to get back on track, steaming Los Angeles up from -140 to -160.
At DraftKings, the Dodgers are taking in 79% of moneyline bets and 91% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Los Angeles is receiving only 47% of moneyline bets but 90% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy and further evidence of the more respected wiseguy wagers backing the Dodgers out in Vegas.
Road favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 123-81 (60%) with a 4% ROI this season. Road favorites off a loss receiving at least 10-cents of steam in their direction are 51-28 (65%) with a 9% ROI.
Los Angeles has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Dodgers have the better bats, hitting .258 with 144 homers and 511 runs scored compared to the Giants hitting .232 with 88 homers and 396 runs scored.
4:05 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at Baltimore Orioles (-170, 9)
The Orioles (43-50) took last night’s Interleague series opener 5-2, cashing as -145 home favorites.
In this late afternoon rematch, the Marlins (42-51) hand the ball to righty Janson Junk (3-1, 3.12 ERA) and the Orioles counter with lefty Trevor Rogers (2-0, 1.57 ERA).
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -155 home favorite and Miami a +140 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Orioles to stay hot at Camden Yards, steaming Baltimore up from -155 to -170.
At DraftKings, the Orioles are receiving 82% of moneyline bets and 85% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Baltimore is taking in 78% of moneyline bets and a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a heavy, one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Home favorites who won the opening game of a new series have gone 109-61 (64%) with a 3% ROI in the second game. When both teams are below .500, as is the case here, the home favorite off a win has gone 51-26 (66%) with a 7% ROI. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season receiving line movement in their direction are 195-99 (66%) with a 5% ROI.
Baltimore has additional betting system value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Orioles are 7-3 over their last ten games, hitting .241. The Marlins are 4-6 over their last ten games, hitting .226.
4:10 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox (-190, 8)
The Red Sox (51-45) have taken the first two games of this four-game series, winning the opener 4-3 as -120 home favorites and winning again yesterday 5-4 as -115 home favorites.
In this late afternoon rematch, the Rays (50-45) tap righty Shane Baz (8-4, 4.34 ERA) and the Red Sox go with lefty Garrett Crochet (9-4, 2.39 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as a -175 home favorite and Tampa Bay a +160 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have laid the wood with the red-hot Red Sox (who have won eight straight), steaming Boston up from -175 to -190.
At DraftKings, the Red Sox are receiving 78% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy “low bets, higher dollars” support from both wiseguys and the betting public.
Home favorites -190 or more off a win are 103-34 (75%) with a 5% ROI this season. Home favorites -190 or more with a line move in their direction are 125-43 (74%) with a 5% ROI.
Boston has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Red Sox have the better bats, hitting 121 homers and scoring 486 runs compared to the Rays hitting 105 homers and scoring 448 runs.
Boston is 6-1 in Crochet’s last seven starts.
The Red Sox are 9-1 in their last ten games, hitting .311 with a 2.50 team ERA. Meanwhile, the Rays are 3-7 over their last ten games, hitting .266 with a 4.39 team ERA.
The Red Sox are 4-1 against the Rays this season.
