Today we kick off the weekend with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:10 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (-120, 8.5) at Detroit Tigers
The Tigers (42-23) won last night’s Interleague series opener 3-1, taking care of business as -200 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s rematch, the Cubs (39-24) hand the ball to righty Jameson Taillon (5-3, 3.76 ERA) and the Tigers counter with lefty Tyler Holton (2-2, 4.13 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -115 home favorite and Chicago a -105 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Cubs to bounce back with a win, steaming Chicago up from a -105 road dog to a -120 road favorite. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of Chicago.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are receiving 62% of moneyline bets and 75% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Chicago is taking in 83% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the road chalk Cubs.
The Cubs are 17-4 (81%) with a 46% ROI off a loss this season, the second best “bounce back” team in MLB.
Chicago has the more explosive bats, hitting .262 with 83 homers and 357 runs scored compared to Detroit hitting .251 with 76 homers and 320 runs scored. The Cubs are hitting .276 on the road, the best in MLB. Meanwhile, the Tigers are hitting .247 at home (16th).
Taillon has allowed two earned runs or less in three consecutive starts, with Chicago going 3-0 in those games.
Holton has a 4.50 ERA at home this season compared to 3.77 on the road.
4:10 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (-120, 7) at Cleveland Guardians
The Astros (35-28) took last night’s series opener 4-2, cashing as -130 road favorites.
In this late afternoon rematch, the Astros send out righty Hunter Brown (8-3, 1.83 ERA) and the Guardians (33-29) go with fellow righty Gavin Williams (5-3, 3.79 ERA).
This line opened with Houston listed as a -135 road favorite and Cleveland a +115 home dog.
The public is backing the Astros as a short chalk favorite. However, despite receiving 65% of moneyline bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Houston fall from -135 to -120. Some books are even down to Astros -115.
This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Guardians, as the line has moved in their direction (+115 to +100) despite being the unpopular play.
Short dogs +120 or less, like the Guardians here, are 102-89 (53%) with a 10% ROI and +19 units won since May 1st.
Saturday home teams off a loss receiving line movement in their favor are 38-26 (59%) with a 13% ROI this season. Saturday home dogs are 26-25 (51%) with a 10% ROI.
Brown has a 2.51 ERA on the road compared to 0.88 at home. Meanwhile, Williams has allowed 2 earned runs or less in five of his last six starts. Cleveland is 4-2 in his last six starts overall.
Cleveland is 17-12 at home this season. Houston is 13-16 on the road.
4:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals (-140, 8) at Chicago White Sox
The White Sox (21-43) stole last night’s series opener 7-2, coming through as +115 home dogs.
In this late afternoon rematch, the Royals (33-31) tap righty Michael Wacha (3-4, 2.88 ERA) and the White Sox start fellow righty Adrian Houser (1-1, 1.47 ERA).
This line opened with Kansas City listed as a -150 road favorite and Chicago a +130 home dog.
The public says there’s no way the White Sox win again and they’re rushing to the window to lay the chalk with the Royals. However, despite 84% of moneyline bets hammering Kansas City we’ve actually seen the Royals fall from -150 to -140.
Why would the oddsmakers drop the Kansas City price when the public is already pounding the Royals to begin with? Because respected sharp action is fading the “Gambler’s Fallacy” and has come down on the plus money White Sox, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular home team.
At Circa, the White Sox are only taking in 38% of moneyline bets but a whopping 97% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger wiseguy wagers backing the home team out in Vegas.
Chicago has betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and leading to more upset opportunities. Short dogs +120 or less are 102-89 (53%) with a 10% ROI and +19 units won since May 1st.
The White Sox are 15-17 (47%) at home but have produced a 14% ROI due to the plus money dog payouts.
Wacha has a 4.40 ERA on the road compared to 1.80 at home.
