Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded 16-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (-130, 8)
The Twins (28-22) won last night’s series opener 3-1, taking care of business as -190 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s rematch, the Royals (28-24) send out righty Michael Wacha (3-4, 2.86 ERA) and the Twins go with fellow righty Zebby Matthews (0-1, 12.00 ERA).
This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -120 home favorite and Kansas City a +100 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Twins at home, steaming Minnesota up from -120 to -130.
At Circa, the Twins are taking in only 30% of moneyline bets but a whopping 77% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy and further evidence of the bigger, more respected wagers backing the home chalk out in Vegas.
Minnesota has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Twins are 17-7 at home this season. The Royals are 11-15 on the road.
Minnesota is 8-2 over their last ten games, hitting .266 with a team ERA of 3.00.
Meanwhile, Kansas City is 4-6 over their last ten games, hitting .260 with a team ERA of 3.24.
4:05 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (-150, 8.5) at Washington Nationals
The Giants (30-21) won last night’s series opener 4-0, cashing as -105 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s rematch, the Giants start lefty Kyle Harrison (0-0, 3.38 ERA) and the Nationals (23-28) turn to righty Jake Irvin (3-1, 3.88 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -135 road favorite and Washington a +115 home dog.
Wiseguys are riding the hot hand, steaming the Giants up from -135 to -150.
At DraftKings, the Giants are receiving 65% of moneyline bets and 69% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Giants are taking in 43% of moneyline bets and 59% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the road chalk.
The Giants have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
San Francisco has the far better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 2.62 (best in MLB) compared to 6.34 for Washington (2nd worst).
The Giants are 14-8 in day games. The Nationals are 10-13 in day games.
4:10 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves (-115, 9)
The Padres (28-21) took last night’s series opener 2-1, cashing as +140 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s rematch, the Padres hand the ball to righty Michael King (4-2, 2.59 ERA) and the Braves (24-26) turn to righty Grant Holmes (2-3, 4.01 ERA).
This line opened with San Diego listed as a -125 road favorite and Atlanta a +105 home dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Braves in a bounce back spot, steaming Atlanta from a +105 home dog to a -115 home favorite. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the Braves
At DraftKings, the Braves are taking in 44% of moneyline bets and 68% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Braves are receiving 75% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of Atlanta at home.
Atlanta has betting system value as a favorite off a loss and a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Braves are 15-8 at home. The Padres are 12-13 on the road.
Atlanta has the more explosive bats as of late, hitting .280 over their last ten games compared to the Padres only hitting .210.
King has a 3.63 ERA on the road compared to 2.11 at home.
Meanwhile, Holmes has a 2.63 ERA at home compared to 5.55 on the road.
