Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:15 p.m. ET: New York Mets (-150, 8.5) at St. Louis Cardinals
The Mets (22-11) took last night’s series opener 9-3, cruising as -120 road favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Mets hand the ball to righty Tylor Megill (3-2, 1.74 ERA) and the Cardinals (14-19) counter with fellow righty Erick Fedde (1-3, 4.68 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -140 road favorite and St. Louis a +120 home dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the chalk with New York, steaming the Mets up from -140 to -150. Some shops are even inching toward -155.
At DraftKings, the Mets are receiving 86% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Mets are taking in 90% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing heavy one-way “low bets, higher dollars” support in favor of another Mets victory on the road.
Favorites with line movement in their direction are 209-113 (65%) with a 7% ROI this season. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 157-85 (65%) with a 5% ROI. Saturday favorites with a winning record are 24-11 (69%) with an 11% ROI.
The Mets have additional betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
New York has a big edge in the bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.18 (8th best) compared to 4.73 for St. Louis (5th worst).
The Cardinals went 0-5 in Fedde’s five April starts. He posted a 5.40 ERA in those games, allowing 16 earned runs in 26.2 innings pitched.
4:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox (-115, 9.5)
The Red Sox (18-16) won last night’s series opener 6-1, taking care of business as -120 home favorites.
In this late afternoon rematch, the Twins (13-20) trot out righty Bailey Ober (3-1, 4.13 ERA) and the Red Sox turn to fellow righty Hunter Dobbins (2-0, 2.45 ERA).
This line opened with the Red Sox listed as a short -110 home favorite and the Twins a +100 road dog.
Wiseguys have quietly sided with Boston to earn another win at Fenway, driving the Red Sox up from -110 to -115. Some shops are even inching toward -120.
At DraftKings, the Red Sox are taking in 75% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Red Sox are receiving 67% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of Boston laying modest chalk at home.
Home favorites are 208-109 (66%) with an 8% ROI this season. Home favorites with a winning record are 115-52 (69%) with an 11% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 209-113 (65%) with a 7% ROI this season. Home favorites off a win with a winning record are 83-33 (72%) with a 15% ROI. Saturday favorites with a winning record are 24-11 (69%) with an 11% ROI.
The Red Sox have a big edge at the plate, hitting .254 with 41 homers and 172 runs scored compared to the Twins only hitting .234 with 26 homers and 124 runs scored.
Boston is hitting .264 at home this season, 3rd best in MLB. Minnesota is hitting .215 on the road, ranking 19th.
The Red Sox are 9-6 at home this season. The Twins are 4-14 on the road.
9:38 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (-180, 8.5) at Los Angeles Angels
The Tigers (21-12) have taken the first two games of this four-game series, winning the opener 10-4 as -150 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 9-1 as -190 road favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Tigers tap righty Jack Flaherty (1-3, 3.34 ERA) and the Angels (12-19) rebuttal with fellow righty Kyle Hendricks 0-3, 6.65 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -170 road favorite and Los Angeles a +155 home dog.
Sharps seem to be thinking “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” and have gotten down hard on the Tigers, steaming Detroit up from -170 to -180. Some shops are even approaching -185.
At Circa, Detroit is receiving 80% of moneyline bets and a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the bigger wiseguy wagers laying the expensive road chalk out in Vegas.
Favorites with line movement in their direction are 209-113 (65%) with a 7% ROI this season. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 157-85 (65%) with a 5% ROI. Saturday favorites with a winning record are 24-11 (69%) with an 11% ROI.
The Tigers have the far better offense, hitting .252 with 164 runs scored compared to the Angels only hitting .213 with 111 runs scored.
Detroit has a big edge in the bullpen as well, sporting a team ERA of 2.62 (3rd best) compared to 6.60 for the Angels (2nd worst).
Hendricks has allowed three earned runs of more in three straight starts and the Angels have gone 0-3 in those games.
