Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:40 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (-145, 8) at Miami Marlins
These National League East foes have split the first two games of this three-game series. The Nationals (6-8) won the opener 7-4, cashing as -115 road favorites. Then the Marlins (7-7) bounced back with a 7-6 win yesterday, taking care of business as -145 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Nationals hand the ball to lefty MacKenzie Gore (1-1, 2.65 ERA) and the Marlins counter with righty Cal Quantrill (1-1, 6.00 ERA).
This line opened with Washington listed as a -135 road favorite and Miami a +120 home dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with the Nationals, steaming Washington up from -135 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Nationals are receiving 75% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Nationals are taking in 86% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Nationals.
Washington has the more explosive offense, hitting 18 homers with 66 runs scored compared to Miami hitting 10 homers with 54 runs scored. Gore has gone at least 5 innings and given up 3 earned runs or less in all three starts this season.
The Nationals have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Sharps are also expecting a lower scoring game, as the total is 8 with the under juiced to -115. Some shops are even inching down to 7.5. This downward liability is notable because the public is playing the over (66% of bets at DraftKings), yet the price to take the under has gotten more expensive.
1:40 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (-165, 8) at Tampa Bay Rays
These Interleague opponents have split the first two games of this three-game series. The Rays (6-8) won the opener 6-3, taking care of business as -140 home favorites. Then the Braves (4-10) bounced back with a 5-4 win yesterday, cashing as +120 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Braves start lefty Chris Sale (0-1, 6.75 ERA) and the Rays were originally expected to go with righty Shane Baz (1-0, 1.38 ERA). But then Baz was pushed back and Tampa Bay will now send out Joe Boyle, who will make his 2025 debut after going 3-6 with a 6.42 ERA in 2024 with the Athletics.
This line originally opened with Atlanta listed as a -120 road favorite and Tampa Bay a +105 home dog. Once Baz was scratched, we saw the line re-open and then steam heavily toward Atlanta -120 to -165.
At DraftKings, the Braves are receiving 75% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy one-way Pro and Joe support in their favor.
The Braves match several betting systems, including Interleague favorites off a win and road favorites with steam 10-cents or more in their favor.
The Rays are only hitting .192 against lefties this season, ranking 22nd in MLB. The Braves are hitting .249 against righties, ranking 10th. Atlanta also has the superior bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 4.04 compared to 4.53 for Tampa Bay.
2:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros (-155, 8.5)
These American League West opponents have split the first two games of this three-game series. The Astros (6-8) won the opener 14-3, cruising as -145 home favorites. Then the Angels (9-5) roared back with a 4-1 win yesterday, cashing as +140 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s rubber match, the Angels hand the ball to righty Kyle Hendricks (0-0, 1.64 ERA) and the Astros turn to fellow righty Hayden Wesneski (0-1, 3.75 ERA).
This line opened with Houston listed as a -140 home favorite and Los Angeles a +125 road dog. Wiseguys have gotten down hard on the Astros to earn a series win, driving Houston up from -140 to -155.
At Circa, Houston is receiving only 44% of moneyline bets but a whopping 93% of moneyline bets, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicating the bigger, sharper wagers backing the home chalk.
The Astros match several betting systems, including home favorites, favorites off a loss and favorites receiving steam 10-cents or more in their direction. Houston have the far better bullpen as well, sporting a team ERA of 3.48 compared to 6.45 for the Angels, the worst in MLB.
Sharps also seem to be leaning toward a higher scoring game, as the over 8.5 is juiced up to -115 or -120 across the market. At Draftkings, the over is receiving 48% of moneyline bets but 66% of moneyline dollars, a sharp bet discrepancy. The Angels are 9-5 to the over this season, the 4th-best over team in MLB.
