Today the weekend comes to a close with a loaded 16-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:40 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-160, 8) at Tampa Bay Rays
The Yankees (13-8) took the first two games of this four-game series, winning the opener 6-3 as -105 dogs and the second game 1-0 as -120 road favorites. Then the Rays (9-12) bounced back with a 10-8 win in extra innings yesterday, cashing as -130 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Yankees hand the ball to lefty Max Fried (3-0, 1.88 ERA) and the Rays counter with righty Ryan Pepiot (1-2, 4.91 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -140 road favorite and Tampa Bay a +120 home dog. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Yankees to bounce back after yesterday’s loss, steaming the Bronx Bombers up from -140 to -160.
At DraftKings, the Yankees are taking in 91% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Yankees are receiving 80% of moneyline bets and over 95% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing heavy one-way Pro and Joe “low bets, higher dollars” sharp support in favor of the road chalk.
Favorites off a loss, like the Yankees here, are 86-43 (67%) with a 13% ROI this season. Sunday favorites off a loss are 13-6 (68%) with a 17% ROI this season and 131-71 (65%) with an 11% ROI since the start of 2024. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 138-69 (67%) with a 10% ROI. Favorites -150 or more are 88-37 (70%) with an 8% ROI.
The Yankees have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win the game.
New York has the more explosive bats, hitting 35 homers and scoring 122 runs compared to Tampa Bay only hitting 21 homers and scoring 94 runs.
The Yankees are hitting .252 against righties this season (6th). The Rays are only hitting .221 against lefties (17th).
2:10 p.m. ET: Athletics at Milwaukee Brewers (-130, 8)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Brewers (11-10) won the opener 5-3, taking care of business as -180 home favorites. Then the Athletics (10-11) bounced back with a 3-1 win yesterday, cashing as +110 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Athletics send out lefty Jeffrey Springs (3-1, 4.50 ERA) and the Brewers tap righty Logan Henderson, who is making his Major League debut. Henderson has gone 2-1 with a 3.21 ERA in AAA Nashville this season.
This line opened at roughly a pick’em with both sides listed around -110 odds. Wiseguys have sided with the Brewers at home, steaming Milwaukee up from -110 to -130. Some shops are even creeping up to -135.
At Circa, the Brewers are receiving 78% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy and further evidence of the bigger, wiseguy wagers backing the home chalk.
Home favorites off a loss, like the Brewers here, are 54-23 (70%) with a 19% ROI this season. Interleague home favorites are 45-22 (67%) with a 14% ROI. Sunday home favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 16-3 (84%) this season with a 41% ROI and 122-67 (65%) with a 6% ROI since the start of 2024. Home favorites with a winning record are 71-23 (76%) with a 22% ROI.
The Brewers have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win the game.
2:35 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (-160, 8.5) at Texas Rangers
These Interleague foes have split the first two games of this three-game series. The Dodgers (15-7) took the opener 3-0, coming through as -125 road favorites. Then the Rangers (13-8) roared back with a 4-3 walkoff win in the bottom of the ninth yesterday, cashing as -115 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Dodgers trot out righty Tyler Glasnow (1-0, 4.85 ERA) and the Rangers rebuttal with fellow righty Tyler Mahle (3-0, 0.92 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -135 road favorite and Texas a +120 home dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with the Dodgers to bounce back with a win and take the series, steaming Los Angeles up from -135 to -160.
At Circa, the Dodgers are receiving only 42% of moneyline bets but a whopping 81% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split out in the desert.
Interleague favorites are 64-40 (62%) with a 5% ROI this season. Favorites off a loss are 86-43 (67%) with a 13% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 138-69 (67%) with a 10% ROI. Favorites -150 or more are 88-37 (70%) with an 8% ROI. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 105-55 (66%) with a 7% ROI.
Los Angeles has the better bats, hitting .232 with 36 homers and 99 runs scored compared to Texas hitting .223 with 22 homers and only 67 runs scored.
The Dodgers are also expected to have Shohei Ohtani back in the lineup after being out on paternity leave.
