Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum, his new book OUT NOW >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up.
12:10 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Tampa Bay Rays (-140, 9)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Cardinals (64-66) took the opener 7-4, coming through as -120 road favorites. Then the Rays (62-67) bounced back with a 10-6 win, cashing as -140 home favorites.
In this early afternoon series finale, the Cardinals start lefty Matthew Liberatore (6-10, 4.13 ERA) and the Rays go with righty Ryan Pepiot (8-10, 3.95 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -125 home favorite and St. Louis a +105 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Rays to earn a victory and take the series, steaming Tampa Bay up from -125 to -140.
At Circa, the Rays are taking in 42% of moneyline bets and 86% of moneyline dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” indicating wiseguy smart money out in Vegas backing the home team.
Tampa Bay has betting system value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Rays have the better bats, hitting 143 homers and scoring 577 runs compared to the Cardinals hitting 124 homers and scoring 571 runs.
2:10 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers (-120, 8)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Brewers (81-49) won the opener 5-4, taking care of business as -185 home favorites. Then the Giants (62-68) clawed back with a 7-1 win yesterday as +115 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Giants go with lefty Robbie Ray (10-6, 2.85 ERA) and the Brewers tap righty Chad Patrick (3-8, 3.61 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -130 road favorite and Milwaukee a +110 home dog.
Initially, it was unclear who would get the nod for the Brewers. Once it was announced Patrick would get the start, we saw a heavy overload of sharp action hit the Brewers, flipping Milwaukee to a -120 home favorite. Essentially, we are seeing “dog to favorite” smart money siding with Milwaukee to bounce back with a win.
At DraftKings, the Brewers are receiving 68% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Milwaukee is taking in 50% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing a one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the home team.
The Brewers have betting system value as a non-division favorite and correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game, with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to benefit and come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Milwaukee has a big edge offensively, hitting .257 with 663 runs scored compared to San Francisco hitting .231 with 526 runs scored. The Brewers are hitting .266 against lefties, 3rd best in MLB.
The Brewers are 43-21 at home. The Giants are 32-35 on the road.
7 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (-165, 8.5)
The Red Sox (71-59) have won the first three games of this four-game series, winning the opener 6-3 as +120 road dogs, taking the second game 1-0 as +160 road dogs and then winning again yesterday 12-1 as -115 road favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Red Sox hand the ball to righty Dustin May (7-9, 4.59 ERA) and the Yankees (69-60) go with lefty Carlos Rodon (13-7, 3.24 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -165 home favorite and Boston a +145 road dog.
The public says there’s no way the Yankees get swept at home and 63% of moneyline bets at DraftKings are laying the chalk with New York.
However, despite receiving roughly two-thirds of tickets we’ve seen this line remain stagnant at Yankees -165. Normally, if a team is taking in a clear majority of tickets you would expect to see the line move further in favor. The fact the line hasn’t budged signals a sharp line freeze on the plus money Red Sox (+145).
At DraftKings, the Red Sox are receiving 37% of moneyline bets and 71% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Boston is taking in 88% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the road dog.
Boston has betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting plus money.
The Red Sox are hitting .262 against lefties this season, 4th best in MLB.
The Red Sox are 8-1 against the Yankees this season.
