Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:40 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at New York Mets (-165, 8.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Giants (55-56) took the opener 4-3 in extra innings, cashing as +125 road dogs. Then the Mets (63-48) bounced back with a 12-6 win yesterday, taking care of business as -195 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Giants hand the ball to lefty Carson Whisenhunt (0-0, 7.20 ERA) and the Mets turn to righty Frankie Montas (3-1, 5.46 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -150 home favorite and San Francisco a +130 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down on the Mets to earn a victory and take the series, steaming New York up from -150 to -165.
At DraftKings, the Mets are receiving 81% of moneyline bets and 91% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, New York is taking in 71% of moneyline bets and 85% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
Sunday home favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 80-41 (66%) with an 8% ROI this season. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season coming off a win with a line move in their favor are 136-68 (67%) with a 5% ROI. Non-division home favorites off a win with line movement in their favor are 188-103 (65%) with a 4% ROI.
The Mets are 34-13 (72%) with a 14% ROI as a home favorite, the 2nd best home favorite in MLB.
New York has the better bats, hitting .241 with 137 homers and 488 runs scored compared to the Giants hitting .232 with 103 homers and 453 runs scored.
Montas is 2-0 with a 3.31 ERA at home compared to 1-1 with an 8.10 ERA on the road.
Meanwhile, Whisenhunt is making his 2nd career start after allowing 4 earned runs in 5 innings in a 6-5 loss to the Pirates.
The Mets are 38-17 at home. The Giants are 27-30 on the road.
1:40 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians (-170, 8.5)
The Guardians (56-54) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 3-2 in extra innings as -125 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 5-4 as -160 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Twins (51-59) send out righty Jose Urena (0-0, 5.40 ERA) and the Guardians turn to lefty Joey Cantillo (2-1, 4.14 ERA).
This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -160 home favorite and Minnesota a +135 road dog.
Sharps are banking on the Guardians to complete the sweep, steaming Cleveland up from -160 to -170.
At Circa, the Guardians are taking in 67% of moneyline bets and over 90% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of the desert wiseguys laying the chalk with Cleveland.
Sunday home favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 80-41 (66%) with an 8% ROI this season. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season coming off a win with a line move in their favor are 136-68 (67%) with a 5% ROI. Favorites off a win with a winning record who made the playoffs the previous season and are receiving 5-cents of steam or more are 132-59 (69%) with a 7% ROI.
The Guardians are 20-10 (67%) with an 11% ROI as a home favorite, the 6th best home favorite in MLB.
Urena was recently acquired by the Dodgers and hasn’t pitched since June 5th.
The Guardians are 6-4 over their last ten games, hitting .260 with a 3.10 team ERA. Conversely, the Twins are 3-7 over their last ten games, hitting .225 with a 5.71 team ERA.
Cleveland is 6-2 against Minnesota this season.
The Guardians are 29-26 at home. The Twins are 21-35 on the road.
2:20 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles at Chicago Cubs (-185, 8)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Cubs (64-46) won the opener 1-0, coming through as -155 home favorites. Then the Orioles (51-60) pulled off a 4-3 come-from-behind victory yesterday, cashing as +195 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Orioles go with righty Brandon Young (0-5, 6.63 ERA) and the Cubs counter with fellow righty Colin Rea (8-5, 4.25 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -180 home favorite and Baltimore a +160 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have quietly sided with Chicago, driving the Cubs up from -180 to -185. Some shops are even touching -190.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are taking in 84% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Chicago is receiving 71% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of the Cubs earning a victory and taking the series.
Chicago is 30-12 (71%) with a 24% ROI following a loss this season, the 2nd most profitable “bounce back” team in MLB.
The Cubs have correlative betting value as a bigger favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Chicago has the more explosive bats, hitting .254 with 158 homers and 574 runs scored compared to Baltimore hitting .244 with 137 homers and 486 runs scored.
Rea posted a 3.90 ERA in five July starts. The Cubs are 15-7 in his 22 starts this season.
Meanwhile, Young posted a 6.38 ERA in five July starts. The Orioles are 2-6 in his 8 starts this season.
Chicago is 34-20 at home. Baltimore is 24-33 on the road.
