Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:10 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at Minnesota Twins (-145, 9)
The Twins (47-48) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 2-1 as -145 home favorites and winning again yesterday 12-4 as -135 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Pirates (38-58) hand the ball to righty Mitch Keller (3-10, 3.58 ERA) and the Twins counter with fellow righty Simeon Woods-Richardson (5-4, 4.08 ERA).
This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -135 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +115 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Twins to complete the sweep, steaming Minnesota up from -135 to -145.
At Circa, the Twins are receiving 64% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split and further evidence of the bigger, more respected wiseguy wagers out in Vegas backing the home team.
The Twins have betting system value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Minnesota has the better bats, hitting .241 with 112 homers and scoring 401 runs compared to Pittsburgh hitting .229 with 65 homers and 324 runs scored.
Woods-Richardson has posted a 0.90 ERA in two July starts, giving up only one earned run in 10 innings pitched. Meanwhile, the Pirates are 3-12 in Keller’s last 15 starts.
The Twins are 28-19 at home. The Pirates are 12-37 on the road, tied for the 2nd worst road record in MLB.
2:15 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals (-170, 8.5)
The Braves (42-52) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 6-5 as -105 road dogs and then winning again yesterday 7-6 as -115 road favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Braves (42-52) are expected to start righty Davis Daniel, who is making his 2nd MLB appearance this year and 11th overall, while the Cardinals tap fellow righty Sonny Gray (9-3, 3.51 ERA). Daniel has made 14 starts in AAA this season, posting a 3.52 ERA in 76.2 innings pitched.
This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -150 home favorite and Atlanta a +130 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Cardinals to avoid the sweep, steaming St. Louis up from -150 to -170.
At DraftKings, the Cardinals are receiving 77% of moneyline bets and 89% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, St. Louis is taking in 67% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of the home chalk.
The Cardinals have the better bats, hitting .252 with 439 runs scored compared to the Braves hitting .243 with 384 runs scored.
The Cardinals are 14-4 in Gray’s 18 starts this season. He is 6-1 with a 2.83 ERA at home.
St. Louis is 28-20 at home. Atlanta is 18-30 on the road, the 4th worst road record in MLB.
4:07 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Angels (-120, 9)
The Angels (47-48) have won the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, taking the opener 6-5 as -115 home favorites and winning again yesterday 10-5 as -130 home favorites.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Diamondbacks (46-50) send out righty Merrill Kelly (7-5, 3.41 ERA) and the Angels start fellow righty Jose Soriano (6-6, 4.00 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -115 road favorite and Los Angeles a -105 home dog.
The public is backing the Diamondbacks to earn a victory and avoid the sweep. However, despite 65% of moneyline bets taking Arizona we’ve seen this line completely flip to the Angels (-105 to -120).
In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement in favor of the Angels, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular side.
At Circa, the Angels are receiving 40% of moneyline bets and 55% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split and further evidence of the more respected wagers out in the desert playing the Angels to complete the sweep.
Los Angeles is hitting .275 over their last ten games compared to Arizona hitting only .215.
