Today the holiday weekend wraps up with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:37 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays (-190, 9.5)
The Blue Jays (51-38) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 4-3 in extra innings as -150 home favorites and then winning again 4-3 in extra innings yesterday as -205 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Angels (43-45) send out lefty Tyler Anderson (2-5, 4.12 ERA) and the Blue Jays counter with righty Kevin Gausman (6-6, 4.18 ERA).
This line opened with Toronto listed as a -175 home favorite and Los Angeles a +155 road dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and have gotten down hard on the Blue Jays to complete the sweep, steaming Toronto up from -175 to -190.
At Circa, the Blue Jays are only taking in 50% of moneyline bets but a hefty 86% of moneyline dollars, indicating an undecided public but also respected sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split out in Vegas.
Sunday home favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 64-29 (69%) with a 12% ROI this season. The Blue Jays are 20-9 (69%) with a 16% ROI as a home favorite, the 4th best home favorite in MLB.
Toronto has the more productive bats, hitting .258 with 409 runs scored compared to Los Angeles hitting .228 with 377 runs scored.
The Blue Jays are hitting .271 at home (3rd best in MLB) and .265 against lefties (3rd). Conversely, the Angels are hitting .228 on the road (25th) and .231 against righties (28th).
Anderson is 1-2 with a 5.48 ERA on the road and 0-4 with a 5.70 ERA in day games.
The Blue Jays are 31-16 at home. The Angels are 23-25 on the road.
4:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Arizona Diamondbacks (-155, 9.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Royals (42-48) took the opener 9-3, cashing as -105 road dogs. Then the Diamondbacks (44-45) bounced back with a 7-1 win yesterday, taking care of business as -135 home favorites.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Royals hand the ball to righty Michael Lorenzen (4-8, 4.95 ERA) and the Diamondbacks turn to fellow righty Anthony DeSclafani (0-0, 4.82 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -125 home favorite and Kansas City a +105 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Diamondbacks laying short chalk at home, steaming Arizona up from -125 to -155.
At Circa, the Diamondbacks are only taking in 40% of moneyline bets but a whopping 85% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split and further evidence of the more respected wiseguy wagers out in the desert backing the home team.
Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more in their favor are 129-67 (66%) with a 4% ROI this season. Sunday Interleague home favorites off a win are 15-6 (71%) with a 21% ROI.
The Diamondbacks have a notable edge at the plate, hitting .253 with 132 homers and 461 runs scored compared to the Royals hitting .243 with 61 homers and 300 runs scored.
Arizona is hitting .255 at home (3rd best in MLB) and .258 against righties (7th). Meanwhile, Kansas City is hitting only .246 on the road (12th) and .244 against righties (21st).
Lorenzen is 2-5 with a 5.68 ERA on the road this season.
6:10 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs (-210, 7.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Cubs (53-36) dominated the opener 11-3, taking care of business as -155 home favorites. Then the Cardinals (48-42) clawed back with an 8-6 win yesterday, cashing as +135 road dogs.
In tonight’s series finale, the Cardinals tap righty Erick Fedde (3-8, 4.56 ERA) and the Cubs go with lefty Matthew Boyd (8-3, 2.65 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -200 home favorite and St. Louis a +190 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive price and have laid the wood with the Cubs at Wrigley, driving Chicago up from -200 to -210.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are receiving 85% of moneylinet bets and 88% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Chicago is taking in 67% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a heavy, one way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of the Cubs to earn a victory and take the series.
Sunday home favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 64-29 (69%) with a 12% ROI this season. Home favorites -200 or more are 132-45 (75%) with a 4% ROI.
The Cubs are 43-19 (65%) with a 6% ROI as a favorite, the best chalk team in MLB. Chicago is also 25-8 (76%) with a 33% ROI off a loss, the best “bounce back” team in MLB.
The Cubs have correlative betting value as a big favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Chicago has the more explosive bats, hitting 135 homers and scoring 481 runs compared to St. Louis hitting 91 homers and scoring 414 runs.
Boyd is 7-0 with a 2.44 ERA at home this season. Meanwhile, Fedde posted a 5.93 ERA in six June starts, allowing 20 earned runs in 30.1 innings pitched.
The Cubs are 29-16 at home. The Cardinals are 22-25 on the road.
