Today we wrap up the weekend and kick off the month of June with a 15-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Guardians (-190, 8)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Angels (26-31) won the opener 4-2, cashing as +120 road dogs. Then the Guardians (31-26) bounced back with a 7-5 win yesterday, taking care of business as -170 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Angels start righty Jack Kochanowicz (3-6, 5.07 ERA) and the Guardians tap fellow righty Gavin Williams (4-3, 4.27 ERA).
This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -170 home favorite and Los Angeles a +145 road dog.
Wiseguys have gotten down hard in the Guardians to earn a victory and take the series, steaming Cleveland up from -170 to -190.
At Circa, the Guardians are taking in only 50% of moneyline bets but an overwhelming 98% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers backing the home chalk.
Home favorites off a win with a winning record are 132-71 (65%) with a 3% ROI this season. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 183-96 (66%) with a 5% ROI. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season who also receive line movement in their favor are 127-55 (70%) with an 11% ROI.
Cleveland has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Kochanowicz is 1-3 with a 5.63 ERA on the road compared to 2-3 with a 4.45 ERA at home.
Williams posted a 3.28 ERA in five May starts, giving up only 9 earned runs in 24.2 innings pitched.
The Guardians have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.98 compared to 6.18 for the Angels, the worst in MLB.
2:10 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals (-165, 8.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Tigers (38-21) won the opener 7-5, cashing as -120 road favorites. Then the Royals (31-28) clawed back with a 1-0 win yesterday, coming through as +160 home dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Tigers hand the ball to righty Keider Montero (2-1, 4.54 ERA) and the Royals send out lefty Kris Bubic (5-2, 1.45 ERA).
This line opened with Kansas City listed as a -140 home favorite and Detroit a +125 road dog.
The public is leaning toward taking the plus money with the Tigers. However, despite 55% of moneyline bets at DraftKings backing Detroit we’ve actually seen this line move further toward the Royals -140 to -165. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Kansas City, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play.
At Circa, the Royals are only receiving 20% of moneyline bets but a hefty 77% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger, more respected wagers backing the home team.
Home favorites off a win with a winning record are 132-71 (65%) with a 3% ROI this season. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 183-96 (66%) with a 5% ROI. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season who also receive line movement in their favor are 127-55 (70%) with an 11% ROI.
Montero has a 5.30 ERA on the road compared to 3.71 at home.
Meanwhile, Bubic posted a 0.56 ERA in five May starts, allowing only 2 earned runs in 32.1 innings pitched. The Royals are 4-1 in his last five starts.
The Royals have hit better as of late, posting a .268 batting average over their last ten games compared to .203 for the Tigers.
5:10 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres (-150, 8.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Padres (32-24) won the opener 3-2, taking care of business as -190 home favorites. Then the Pirates (22-37) bounced back with a 5-0 win yesterday, cashing as +190 road dogs.
In tonight’s series finale, the Pirates turn to lefty Andrew Heaney (3-4, 3.41 ERA) and the Padres go with righty Randy Vasquez (3-4, 3.58 ERA).
This line opened with San Diego listed as a -140 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +125 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Padres laying modest chalk, steaming San Diego up from -140 to -150.
At DraftKings, the Padres are receiving 79% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, San Diego is taking in 57% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the Padres to earn a win and take the series.
Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 183-96 (66%) with a 5% ROI this season. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season who also receive line movement in their favor are 127-55 (70%) with an 11% ROI. Sunday home favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 37-19 (66%) with an 8% ROI this season.
San Diego has the better bats, hitting .249 with 52 homers and 236 runs scored compared to Pittsburgh only hitting .228 with 41 homers and 190 runs scored.
Heaney posted a 4.74 ERA in five May starts, allowing 13 earned runs in 24.2 innings pitched. The Pirates are 1-5 in his last six starts.
On the other hand, Vasquez posted a 2.89 ERA in five May starts, giving up only 9 earned runs in 28 innings pitched. The Padres are 4-1 in his last five starts.
The Padres are 19-10 at home. The Pirates are 9-21 on the road.
San Diego is 4-1 against the Pirates this season.
