Today we wrap up the weekend with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:35 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves (-165, 8.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Phillies (48-35) dominated the opener 13-0, cruising as +145 road dogs. Then the Braves (38-44) bounced back with a 6-1 win yesterday, taking care of business as -170 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Phillies hand the ball to lefty Ranger Suarez (6-2, 2.08 ERA) and the Braves counter with righty Spencer Strider (3-5, 4.07 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -135 home favorite and Philadelphia a +115 road dog.
The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this 50/50 moneyline ticket count at DraftKings we’ve seen the Braves get steamed up from -135 to -165.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the 30-cent line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers have laid the chalk with the home favorite Braves.
At Circa, Atlanta is receiving 25% of moneyline bets but a whopping 91% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of the desert wiseguy action supporting the Braves.
Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season receiving line movement in their favor are 178-85 (68%) with a 7% ROI this season. When both teams made the playoffs the previous season, as is the case here, the home favorite is 86-41 (68%) with a 14% ROI.
The Braves are hitting .260 at home, 9th best in MLB. Meanwhile, the Phillies are hitting .238 on the road, ranking 18th.
1:35 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (-115, 10) at Boston Red Sox
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Blue Jays (44-38) took the opener 9-0, coming through as +105 road dogs. Then the Red Sox (41-43) bounced back with a 15-1 win yesterday, cashing as +105 home dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Blue Jays send out lefty Eric Lauer (4-1, 2.21 ERA) and the Red Sox go with righty Walker Buehler (5-5, 6.29 ERA).
This line opened with Toronto listed as a -125 road favorite and Boston a +105 home dog.
The public is leaning toward the Blue Jays, who are receiving 57% of moneyline bets at DraftKings. However, despite taking in a majority of tickets, we’ve seen Toronto tumble from -125 to -115.
This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Red Sox, as the line has moved in their direction (+105 to -105) despite being the unpopular play. In other words, sharp Red Sox money is pushing this game toward a pick’em.
Boston has value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting plus money. Boston also has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (10), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities.
The Red Sox have the more explosive bats, hitting 101 homers and scoring 396 runs compared to the Blue Jays hitting 81 homers and scoring 360 runs.
Boston is hitting .269 against lefties this season, 3rd best in MLB.
The Red Sox are 23-18 at home. The Blue Jays are 19-22 on the road.
1:35 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles (-110, 9.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Orioles (35-47) dominated the opener 22-8, cashing as +110 home dogs. Then the Rays (47-36) bounced back with an 11-3 win yesterday, coming through as -105 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Rays send out righty Taj Bradley (5-5, 4.57 ERA) and the Orioles go with fellow righty Dean Kremer (6-7, 4.60 ERA).
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -115 home favorite and Tampa Bay a -105 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Rays, pushing Tampa Bay from a -105 road dog to a -110 road pick’em.
At DraftKings, the Rays are receiving 60% of moneyline bets and 73% of moneyline dollars, indicating modest public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy.
Tampa Bay has the better bats, hitting .260 with 402 runs scored compared to Baltimore hitting .239 with 340 runs scored. The Rays are hitting .269 against righties (1st in MLB). The Orioles are hitting .247 (18th).
Bradley has a 3.32 ERA on the road compared to 5.55 at home. Meanwhile, the Orioles are 6-10 in Kremer’s 16 starts this season.
The Rays are 20-13 on the road. The Orioles are 18-22 at home.
