Happy Mother’s Day!
Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:35 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals (-150, 8.5)
The Cardinals (21-19) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 10-0 as -115 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 4-2 as -120 road favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Cardinals hand the ball to righty Miles Mikolas (1-2, 4.76 ERA) and the Nationals (17-23) turn to lefty MacKenzie Gore (2-3, 3.33 ERA).
This line opened with Washington listed as a -130 home favorite and St. Louis a +110 road dog.
Sharps have laid the chalk with the Nationals to avoid the sweep, steaming Washington up from -130 to -150.
At DraftKings, the Nationals are taking in 54% of moneyline bets and 70% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Nationals are receiving 55% of moneyline bets and 94% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the Nats at home.
Home favorites are 238-133 (64%) with a 5% ROI this season. Home favorites off a loss are 88-50 (64%) with a 7% ROI. Sunday home favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 29-11 (73%) with a 19% ROI. Below .500 favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 91-50 (65%) with a 7% ROI.
Washington has additional betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
2:10 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (-135, 8) at Chicago White Sox
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The White Sox (11-29) won the opener 6-2, cashing as +125 home dogs. Then the Marlins (15-23) bounced back with a 3-1 win yesterday, taking care of business as -115 road favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Marlins send out righty Sandy Alcantara (2-4, 8.42 ERA) and the White Sox go with righty Sean Burke (2-4, 4.35 ERA).
This line opened with Miami listed as a -125 road favorite and Chicago a +105 home dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Marlins laying short road chalk, steaming Miami up from -125 to -135.
At DraftKings, the Marlins are receiving 73% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Marlins are taking in 67% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of the road favorite Fish.
Interleague favorites are 102-64 (61%) with a 4% ROI this season. Below .500 favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 91-50 (65%) with a 7% ROI.
Miami has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Marlins have the better bats, hitting .247 with 34 homers and 162 runs scored compared to the White Sox only hitting .214 with 28 homers and 135 runs scored.
Miami is hitting .242 against righties (20th). Chicago is only hitting .212 (last in MLB).
4:07 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (-145, 9) at Los Angeles Angels
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Orioles (14-24) won the opener 4-1, taking care of business as -140 road favorites. Then the Angels (16-22) bounced back with a 5-2 win yesterday, cashing as +120 home dogs.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Orioles tap righty Zach Eflin (2-1, 3.00 ERA) and the Angels counter with lefty Tyler Anderson (2-0, 2.68 ERA).
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -135 road favorite and Los Angeles a +115 home dog.
Sharps have sided with the Orioles to earn a victory today and take the series, steaming Baltimore up from -135 to -145.
At Circa, the Orioles are taking in 67% of moneyline bets but a whopping 97% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers backing the Birds out in Vegas.
Favorites off a loss who made the playoffs the previous season are 138-66 (68%) with an 8% ROI this season. Sunday favorites off a loss are 23-14 (62%) with a 5% ROI. Below .500 favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 91-50 (65%) with a 7% ROI.
Baltimore has additional betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
