Today the weekend wraps up with a loaded 16-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:35 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles (-140, 9.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Orioles (13-19) won the opener 3-0, taking care of business as -140 home favorites. Then the Royals (18-16) bounced back with a 4-0 win yesterday, cashing as a -110 road pick’em.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Royals hand the ball to righty Michael Lorenzen (3-3, 3.48 ERA) and the Orioles turn to fellow righty Kyle Gibson (0-1, 22.09).
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -120 home favorite and Kansas City a +105 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Orioles laying modest chalk at Camden Yards, steaming Baltimore up from -120 to -140.
At Circa, the Orioles are taking in 67% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of the more respected wiseguy wagers backing Baltimore out in Vegas.
Home favorites, like the Orioles here, are 211-116 (65%) with a 6% ROI this season. Home favorites off a loss are 81-43 (65%) with a 9% ROI. Sunday favorites off a loss are 20-9 (69%) with a 16% ROI. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 159-89 (64%) with a 4% ROI. Favorites who got shut out the previous game as 25-15 (63%) with a 6% ROI.
Baltimore has the more explosive bats, hitting 38 homers and scoring 123 runs compared to Kansas City hitting only 18 homers and scoring 109 runs.
The Orioles have fishy buy-low value as a sub .500 team with a high ERA starting pitcher on the bump against a sell-high above .500 team with a lower ERA starting pitcher.
2:05 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies (-150, 9)
The Phillies (10-14) have won the first two games of this three-game series, taking the opener 3-2 as -155 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 7-2 as -125 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Diamondbacks (17-16) start lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (1-3, 6.06 ERA) and the Phillies tap fellow southpaw Ranger Suarez, who is making his 2025 debut after going 12-8 with a 3.46 ERA in 2024.
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -130 home favorite and Arizona a +110 road dog.
This line remained relatively stagnant for much of the morning and then late big steam hammered the Phillies, driving Philadelphia up from -130 to -150.
At Circa, the Phillies are only taking in 55% of moneyline bets but a hefty 96% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy in their favor.
Home favorites with a winning record, like the Phillies here, are 117-55 (68%) with a 9% ROI this season. Favorites with line movement in their direction who made the playoffs the previous season are 119-55 (68%) with a 10% ROI. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more in their direction are 61-27 (69%) with an 11% ROI. When both teams are above .500, the favorite is 44-25 (64%) with an 8% ROI.
The Phillies are hitting .274 at home (3rd best) and .264 against lefties (6th).
Rodriguez has an 8.16 ERA in three road starts this season.
Philadelphia is 13-5 at home.
2:10 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (-120, 7.5) at Milwaukee Brewers
The Cubs (21-13) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 10-0 as -125 road favorites and then winning again 6-2 yesterday as -115 road favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Cubs send out lefty Shota Imanaga (3-1, 2.77 ERA) and the Brewers tap righty Freddy Peralta (3-2, 2.52 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Wiseguys seem to be thinking “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” and have gotten down on the Cubs to complete the sweep, driving Chicago up from -110 to -120.
Favorites with line movement in their direction, like the Cubs here, are 213-121 (64%) with a 5% ROI this season.
Chicago has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Cubs have a big edge at the plate, hitting .265 with 52 homers and 208 runs scored compared to the Brewers only hitting .239 with 28 homers and 161 runs scored. Chicago is hitting .277 on the road (2nd best). Milwaukee is hitting just .229 at home (24th).
Chicago has the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 4.41 vs 4.98 for the Brewers (3rd worst in MLB).
