Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with only 10-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers (-150, 8)
The Royals (8-11) just got swept by the Yankees in the Bronx, losing yesterday’s series finale 4-3 as +130 road dogs. Similarly, the Tigers (10-8) just dropped two of three against the Brewers, falling 5-1 yesterday as +130 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Royals send out righty Michael Lorenzen (1-2, 3.71 ERA) and the Tigers tap fellow righty Reese Olson (1-1, 6.00 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -130 home favorite and Kansas City a +115 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Tigers laying relatively modest chalk at home, steaming Detroit up from -130 to -150.
At DraftKings, the Tigers are taking in 73% of moneyline bets and 75% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Tigers are receiving 84% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a heavy one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of Detroit at home.
Home favorites are 119-60 (67%) with an 11% ROI this season. Home favorites with a winning record are 57-22 (72%) with a 16% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 113-64 (64%) with a 6% ROI. Favorites off a loss are 74-37 (67%) with a 13% ROI. Home favorites off a loss are 46-20 (70%) with an 18% ROI.
The Tigers have additional correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
Detroit has the better bats, hitting .238 with 20 homers and 81 runs scored compared to Kansas City hitting only .206 with 10 homers and 58 runs scored.
The Tigers are 5-1 at home. The Royals are 2-7 on the road.
7:05 p.m. ET: New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays (-110, 9)
The Yankees (11-7) just swept the Royals, winning yesterday’s series finale 4-3 as -155 home favorites. On the other hand, the Rays (8-10) just dropped two of three against the Red Sox, falling 1-0 yesterday as -135 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Yankees go with righty Will Warren (1-0, 5.14 ERA) and the Rays rebuttal with fellow righty Taj Bradley (2-0, 3.71 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -120 home favorite and New York a +105 road dog.
Wiseguys have gotten down hard on the Yankees, dropping Tampa Bay from -120 to -110 and moving New York from +105 to -105. Essentially, smart Yankees money has shown up and moved this game closer to a pick’em.
The Yankees have value as a divisional dog and a dog in a high total game (9), with the built in familiarity and more expected runs scored leading to more variance and benefiting the team getting plus money.
New York has the more explosive bats, hitting 33 homers and scoring 107 runs compared to the Rays only hitting 19 homers and scoring 81 runs. The Yankees also have the superior bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.21 vs 3.68 for the Rays.
8:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers (-155, 9.5)
The Rangers (11-7) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 4-0 as -130 home favorites and then winning against last night 3-1 as +115 home dogs.
In tonight’s series finale, the Angels (9-8) hand the ball to righty Jack Kochanowicz (1-1, 5.74 ERA) and the Rangers counter with fellow righty Kumar Rocker (0-2, 7.94 ERA).
This line opened with Texas listed as a -135 home favorite and Los Angeles a +120 road dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and have gotten down on the Rangers to complete the sweep, steaming Texas up from -135 to -155. At Circa, the Rangers are receiving 58% of moneyline bets but a whopping 91% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers back the home chalk.
Home favorites are 119-60 (67%) with an 11% ROI this season. Home favorites with a winning record are 57-22 (72%) with a 16% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 113-64 (64%) with a 6% ROI. Favorites -150 or more 74-34 (69%) with a 5% ROI.
The Rangers also have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.94 vs 6.11 for the Angels (2nd worst in MLB).
Texas is 8-1 at home this season. The Rangers are also 6-2 (75%) as a favorite this season.
