Today we have a smaller than usual Thursday MLB slate with only five games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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1:10 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (-115, 9) at Detroit Tigers
The Rangers (10-9) have taken two of the first three games in the four-game series, winning 5-4 on Wednesday as +125 road dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Rangers go with righty Jack Leiter, who is making his MLB debut after being drafted 2nd overall in 2021. Meanwhile, the Tigers (10-8) start veteran righty Kenta Maeda (0-1, 6.00 ERA). This line opened with Detroit listed as a -115 home favorite and Texas a +105 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Rangers, steaming Texas all the way to a -115 favorite. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement on Texas. The Rangers are receiving 66% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars, indicating modest public support but also heavy sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Road favorites are 59-31 (66%) this season with a 15% ROI. Sweet spot short favorites -130 or less are 70-51 (58%) with a 7% ROI. Texas has the better bats (hitting .258 vs .213) and have scored more runs (94 vs 64). Pros also hit the over as soon as it opened, raising the total from 8.5 to 9. The over is receiving 43% of bets but 59% of money, a sharp contrarian bet split. The forecast calls for mid 60s with cloudy skies and 5-7 MPH winds blowing out to left center at Comerica Park.
1:35 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox (-110, 8.5)
The Guardians (12-6) took the first two games of this four-game series. Then the Red Sox (10-9) bounced back with a 2-0 win last night, taking care of business as -135 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, Cleveland starts righty Carlos Carrasco (0-1, 3.55 ERA) and Boston counters with lefty Brennan Bernadino (0-1, 1.69), who normally pitches out of the bullpen but will act as the “opener” today. This line opened with the Red Sox listed as a -125 home favorite and the Guardians a +105 road dog. We’ve seen Boston fall from -125 to -110, signaling respected money grabbing Cleveland (+105 to -110). In other words, we are seeing smart Guardians money drop this game down to virtually a pick’em. The Guardians are receiving 65% of moneyline bets and 72% of moneyline dollars, signaling one-sided support from both sharps and the public. Cleveland has the better bats (hitting .252 vs .227). The Guardians are 9-3 on the road while the Red Sox are just 3-6 at home. Sharps also hit the under, dropping the total from 9 to 8.5. The under is receiving 69% of bets and 75% of money. The forecast calls for low 50s with cloudy skies and 10 MPH winds blowing in from right center at Fenway Park.
7:40 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs (-160, 7.5)
The Marlins (4-15) just dropped two of three against the Giants, losing 3-1 yesterday as -105 home dogs. On the other hand, the Cubs (11-7) just took two of three against the Diamondbacks, winning 5-3 yesterday as +110 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, Miami starts lefty A.J. Puk (0-3, 5.91 ERA) and Chicago taps righty Jameson Taillon, who is making his 2024 debut after going 8-10 with a 4.84 ERA in 2023. This line opened with the Cubs listed as a -150 home favorite and the Marlins a +130 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the chalk and have gotten down hard on the Cubs, steaming Chicago up from -150 to -160. The Cubs are receiving 89% of moneyline bets and 91% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavily lopsided one-way support from both Pros and Joes. The Cubs have a big edge of offense, hitting .247 and scoring 101 runs while the Marlins are hitting just .216 and scoring just 70 runs. The Marlins have the second worst bullpen ERA in MLB at 5.87. The Cubs sit at 4.25. Chicago also has value as a non-division favorite and correlative value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), as the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to aid the better team who is expected to win. Miami is 2-4 on the road. Chicago is 5-1 at home. Pros hit the under, dropping the total from 8 to 7.5. Currently 54% of bets and 59% of money is taking the under. The forecast calls for low 50s with 10-12 MPH winds blowing in from center with possibly some rain at Wrigley Field.
