Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with only 6 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:40 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (-135, 8) at Minnesota Twins
The Twins (6-6) have taken the first three games of this four game series, winning the opener 7-3 as -125 home favorites, taking the second game 4-2 as +140 home dogs and winning again yesterday 8-6 as +130 home dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Tigers (4-8) hand the ball to righty Jack Flaherty (0-1, 7.56 ERA) and the Twins counter with fellow righty Mick Abel (0-2, 11.05 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -125 road favorite and Minnesota a +105 home dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Tigers to avoid the sweep, driving Detroit up from -125 to -135.
At DraftKings, the Tigers are taking in 72% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Detroit is receiving 73% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” one-way Pro and Joe split in favor of the road chalk.
We’ve also seen smart money lean hard on the Tigers run-line (-1.5 at +125), as the Tigers are receiving 60% of spread bets and 88% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
The Tigers have the better overall team batting average (.239 vs .221) and have also hit better against righties specifically (.237 vs .217).
Detroit is 3-1 in day games. Minnesota is 3-4.
Sharps have also leaned over, as the total is 8 (over -115) with a few other books touching 8.5.
At DraftKings, the over is taking in 72% of bets and 80% of dollars. At Circa, the over is receiving over 90% of bets and dollars.
The over is 2-1 so far this series and the forecast for today calls for high 40s with 8-10 MPH winds blowing out to right center.
9:40 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres (-200, 8)
This is the opener of a four-game set.
The Rockies (6-6) just swept the Astros at home, cashing yesterday’s series finale 9-1 as +120 home dogs. Meanwhile, the Padres (6-6) just took two of three against the Pirates, winning yesterday’s series finale 8-2 as -125 road favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Rockies will open with righty Jimmy Herget (0-0, 1.50 ERA) while the Padres go with fellow righty Randy Vasquez (1-0, 0.75 ERA).
This line opened with San Diego listed as a -185 home favorite and Colorado a +165 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have laid the wood with San Diego, driving the Padres up from -185 to -200.
At DraftKings, the Padres are taking in 83% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, San Diego is receiving 63% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Pros have also looked to knock down the Padres price by backing San Diego on the run-line (-1.5 at +110). At DraftKings, the Padres are receiving 79% of spread bets and 86% of spread dollars. At Circa, San Diego is taking in 50% of spread bets and 61% of spread dollars.
Home favorites facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 49-29 (63%) with a 3% ROI this season. When both teams are coming off a win, as is the case here, the home team is 121-79 (61%) with a 10% ROI since 2025. Thursday home favorites -175 or more are 28-12 (70%) with a 2% ROI since 2025.
San Diego has correlative betting value as a big favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Pros have also leaned under, as the total is sitting at 8 with the under juiced to -115.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 47% of bets and 65% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving 50% of bets and a whopping 92% of dollars.
